200-day SMA Resistance Challenges Bullish Pin Bar: USD/JPY Price Forecast

200-day SMA caps USD/JPY as a potential bullish pin bar takes shape.
Buying momentum weakens as RSI points down despite remaining bullish.
159.00 breakout would put 159.16 in focus; a drop below 157.39 would leave 156.08 at risk.

USD/JPY is down 0.20%. The pair has pared earlier losses following the US midterm election results and trades at 158.41 at the time of writing. A tilted bullish pin bar appears to be developing, although consolidation continues between the 50-day SMA at 157.39 and the 200-day SMA at 158.62.

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159.00 in Focus: USD/JPY Technical Outlook

Lower highs and lower lows still define the market structure, while USD/JPY trades quietly without a clear directional bias. Reclaiming 159.00 would give buyers scope to target the 100-day SMA at 159.16, followed by a test of 160.00.

Momentum offers little support for such a move. Although the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains bullish, it is trending downwards. A break above 160.00 could nevertheless allow buyers to overturn the bearish market structure if the pair then breaches the 2 September high of 160.39.

For the bearish trend to extend, sellers need to push USD/JPY under 158.00 and then below the 50-day SMA at 157.39. Losing that moving average would bring 157.00 into view, with the 23 October low of the day (LOD) at 156.08 the next level in sellers’ sights.

USD/JPY Daily Price Chart

Japanese Yen: Today’s Performance

The Japanese Yen (JPY) recorded its strongest performance against the US Dollar today. The table below lists its percentage changes against the major currencies shown.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.37%	-0.44%	-0.21%	-0.27%	-0.54%	-0.22%	-0.52%
EUR	0.37%		-0.06%	0.20%	0.13%	-0.16%	0.20%	-0.15%
GBP	0.44%	0.06%		0.23%	0.17%	-0.10%	0.23%	-0.09%
JPY	0.21%	-0.20%	-0.23%		-0.07%	-0.34%	-0.03%	-0.33%
CAD	0.27%	-0.13%	-0.17%	0.07%		-0.27%	0.04%	-0.26%
AUD	0.54%	0.16%	0.10%	0.34%	0.27%		0.32%	0.02%
NZD	0.22%	-0.20%	-0.23%	0.03%	-0.04%	-0.32%		-0.29%
CHF	0.52%	0.15%	0.09%	0.33%	0.26%	-0.02%	0.29%

Percentage moves between major currencies are displayed in the heat map. Select the base currency in the left-hand column and the quote currency in the top row. For instance, choosing the Japanese Yen on the left and reading across to the US Dollar gives the percentage change for JPY (base)/USD (quote) in the corresponding cell.