Above $90.00: WTI holds gains amid ongoing US-Iran tensions, but bullish conviction remains weak

A second consecutive day of buying supports WTI, but gains remain limited.
A persistent geopolitical risk premium from the US-Iran standoff underpins crude oil.
Ahead of the key US NFP report, traders also appear reluctant to take positions.

WTI is up around 0.50% on Friday. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, trades just above the psychological $90.00 level as geopolitical uncertainty limits bullish conviction. Its second straight daily advance extends a rebound from $86.00, the more than two-month low reached the previous day.

TMGM Analysis: Financial Market News, Economic Calendar & Market Insights

The geopolitical risk premium continues to support crude prices as tensions persist. On Thursday, President Donald Trump said the US may have to destroy the rest of Iran, adding that people would know soon enough if he acts. Tehran's nuclear programme remains another point of disagreement between the US and Iran. Trump stated that Iran cannot undertake any activity relating to its nuclear programme without US approval. Despite a recovery in crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, commercial traffic also continues to face threats.

Expectations that US President Donald Trump will restart military strikes against Iran have eased following a Democratic sweep in the US midterm elections. Top Senate Democrat Chuck Schumer pledged on Wednesday to seek an end to the Iran war, saying his party could leverage control of government funding to pursue that objective. Hopes of a diplomatic settlement to the eight-month-old US-Iran war therefore remain alive. This might deter aggressive bullish positioning and limit any substantial rise in crude prices.

Around 12% in weekly losses nevertheless remains on the cards for crude, leaving it vulnerable to further developments in the Middle East crisis. Another potential source of financial market volatility is the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, scheduled for release later in the North American session. The closely watched data could create short-term trading opportunities in oil.

WTI daily price chart

$86.10 SMA Underpins WTI Technical Outlook

Above the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $86.10, WTI retains a positive near-term bias. Its recent move through $89.88, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the broader advance, has established that area as immediate demand. Resistance next stands at $95.31, the 23.6% Fibonacci level. Beyond that, the cycle-high anchor near $104.09 provides a more distant upside target.

Should prices retreat, the first support zone lies at $89.88, corresponding to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. A deeper pullback would bring the $86.10–$85.49 band into focus, where the 200-day SMA sits close to the 50% retracement and buyers would be expected to return.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

WTI Oil: Key Questions Answered

What defines WTI Oil?

Short for West Texas Intermediate, WTI is a crude oil traded internationally and one of three major types alongside Brent and Dubai Crude. Its relatively low gravity earns it the description “light”, while its low sulphur content makes it “sweet”. These qualities make WTI a high-quality oil that is easy to refine. Produced in the United States, it is distributed through the Cushing hub, known as “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. WTI serves as an oil market benchmark, with its price regularly cited in media reports.

Which forces determine WTI Oil prices?

Supply and demand are the principal forces behind WTI oil prices, as they are for other assets. Stronger global growth can lift demand, while weaker growth can have the reverse effect. On the supply side, political instability, wars and sanctions can cause disruption and affect prices. Decisions by OPEC, a group of major oil-producing countries, are another important influence. WTI crude prices also respond to the US Dollar because oil is traded predominantly in that currency. A weaker US Dollar can therefore make oil more affordable, while a stronger currency can have the opposite effect.

How do inventory figures affect WTI Oil prices?

Shifts in supply and demand are reflected in oil inventories, making the weekly reports from the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) important for WTI prices. Falling inventories can signal stronger demand and lift oil prices. Rising stocks, by contrast, can indicate increased supply and weigh on prices. The API releases its report every Tuesday, followed by the EIA the next day. The two sets of figures tend to be similar: 75% of the time, they are within 1% of each other. As the EIA is a government agency, its data is regarded as more reliable.

How do OPEC decisions affect WTI Oil prices?

At meetings held twice a year, the 12 oil-producing nations in OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) jointly set production quotas for member countries. Those decisions frequently affect WTI oil prices. Lower quotas can constrain supply and lift prices; increased production has the reverse effect. The broader OPEC+ grouping includes ten additional non-OPEC members, with Russia the most notable.