Bitcoin Price Forecast: Ahead of US CPI data, BTC drops below $75,000

• Bitcoin remains below $75,000 on Tuesday, following last week’s close beneath the key 200-day EMA near $76,444.
• Fresh BTC volatility could follow Tuesday’s US CPI report as market participants assess its implications for Fed rate-hike expectations.
• While Strategy increased its treasury holdings by 1,036 BTC, US-listed spot ETFs saw net outflows of $201.08 million on Monday.

Selling pressure persists in Bitcoin (BTC), which is trading below $75,000 on Tuesday after ending last week beneath a key technical support zone. Institutional demand presents a mixed picture: Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) continue to register outflows, even as Strategy (MSTR) added 1,036 BTC to its treasury. 

For traders, attention has shifted to Tuesday’s release of the US October Consumer Price Index (CPI). The figures could reshape expectations for Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes and spark another bout of volatility in the Crypto King.

Could US CPI determine Bitcoin’s next move?

Whether BTC and other risk assets rebound or suffer a sharp extension of their losses could hinge on the closely watched US CPI release.

Expectations that the Fed could leave interest rates higher for longer strengthened after last week’s US payrolls exceeded forecasts. Traders now assign a probability of over 80% to another increase in borrowing costs by the US central bank in December, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. While this macroeconomic backdrop continues to underpin the US Dollar (USD) and pressure risk assets such as BTC, USD bulls are holding off on fresh positions until the US CPI report. 

Investors will scrutinise Tuesday’s inflation figures for further indications of the Fed’s policy trajectory. Should the reading exceed expectations, rate-hike bets could strengthen and place risk assets under additional pressure.

Risk appetite is also being restrained by conflicting signals around US-Iran peace talks, which sustain the geopolitical risk premium. According to US President Donald Trump, efforts to end the war on Iran are gaining positive momentum and renewed strikes are quite unlikely; he described the conflict as effectively over. 

In contrast, Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, rejected reports of ongoing negotiations as fake news. He reiterated that ending the conflict requires Washington to accept Tehran’s seven conditions. The resulting geopolitical risk premium continues to favour the safe-haven USD and constrain the prospects for a BTC recovery.

Could weakening institutional demand add to BTC’s pressure?

The week opened with further weakness in institutional appetite for Bitcoin. According to SoSoValue, BTC spot ETFs registered $201.08 million in net outflows on Monday, following withdrawals of $1.28 billion last week, the largest weekly outflow since the end of June. A continuation and intensification of withdrawals through this week could add to the pressure on BTC and deepen its price correction.

Corporate buying, however, remains active. Michael Saylor said on Monday that Strategy, his firm, had purchased 1,036 BTC, taking its current holdings to 850,364 BTC alongside $4.9 billion in USD assets. The latest acquisitions indicate continued corporate accumulation of Bitcoin, which could offer some support should BTC prices decline further.

Bitcoin technical outlook: Can BTC regain the 200-day EMA?

With Bitcoin trading at $74,746 on Tuesday, its position below the major Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) keeps the near-term outlook bearish. Immediately above the spot price, the 200-day EMA near $76,444 provides the first ceiling. The 100-day EMA around $77,574 and the 50-day EMA near $79,141 add to this layered zone of overhead supply.

Downside momentum persists, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) close to 36 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) still below zero. Together, these indicators suggest that advances towards the clustered EMAs are likely to encounter selling pressure.

Any recovery would first face resistance around $76,444 at the 200-day EMA, followed by the 100-day EMA near $77,574 and the 50-day EMA around $79,141. Further up, a horizontal barrier lies at approximately $85,000.

With no nearby support identified on the chart, a break beneath current levels would point BTC towards the psychological support area around $70,000 before the price stabilises.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)