Forex Today: US Inflation Returns

Bullish sentiment continued to support the US Dollar (USD) for another day, taking it back to levels last seen in April 2025. Speculation over further Federal Reserve tightening remained firm, with investors even considering the possibility of a half-point interest rate increase.

Broad weakness across risk assets and growing expectations of another Fed rate increase at the December meeting have pushed the US Dollar Index (DXY) above the 103.00 hurdle to fresh 18-month highs. Producer Prices data and speeches by the Fed’s Williams, Bowman, and Daly will round off the calendar.

Persistent US Dollar strength has driven EUR/USD to fresh lows near 1.1050, extending the pair’s decline. The EMU’s Balance of Trade figures are scheduled first, followed by the preliminary Q3 Employment Change reading and the bloc’s second estimate of Q3 GDP Growth Rate. Speeches from the ECB’s Elderson and Schnabel are also on the agenda.

Near the 1.3200 support zone, GBP/USD has slipped to its lowest levels in several weeks. Across the Channel, the next major release is the labour market report, scheduled for November 17.

Strong US Dollar momentum has brought USD/JPY within just pips of the crucial 160.00 barrier. Japan’s next significant release is the preliminary Q3 GDP Growth Rate on November 16, alongside final Industrial Production data and Capacity Utilisation readings. 

Further gains in the Greenback have weighed on AUD/USD for a third consecutive day, briefly taking the pair below support at 0.6800 for the first time since January. Minutes of the RBA’s meeting are due on November 17.

With developments, or the absence of progress, in the Middle East conflict remaining firmly in focus, front-month WTI futures (December contract) have shown no clear direction, trading between $85.00 and $87.00 per barrel.

Continued pressure from a strengthening US Dollar and higher US Treasury yields drove Gold down towards $3,850 per troy ounce on Thursday. The rise in yields was particularly pronounced at the short end and in the belly of the curve.