Crypto Today: Can Bitcoin maintain its hold on the 50-day EMA as Ethereum and XRP encounter structural resistance?

• Bitcoin advances past $81,000 on Friday, having held support at the 50-day EMA.
• Ethereum remains broadly rangebound near $2,400, supported by a cluster of medium- and long-term moving averages.
• XRP rebounds above $1.32 after a steep fall on Thursday tested demand around $1.30.

A bullish outlook continues to underpin Bitcoin (BTC), which is edging above $81,000 on Friday after recently holding structural support near $80,000. The Crypto King’s defence of that level strengthens the prevailing positive bias. Ethereum (ETH) is also making modest gains above $2,400, while Ripple (XRP) is trading above $1.32 following a test of support near $1.30.

What will the Fed decision mean for markets?

Markets assign roughly a 92% probability to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) leaving rates on hold after September’s 25-basis-point increase. The broad expectation is that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain the 3.75-4.00% interest rate range on Wednesday.

An October rate increase carries an 8% probability, according to the FedWatch Tool, while the likelihood of a hike in December is higher.

In an analysis report sent by email, Crypto Finance said: "The FOMC meets 27-28 October, with the decision on Wednesday, 28 October. With inflation risk still elevated and risk assets already tightening financial conditions, the market will watch closely for any shift in the Fed's reaction function,"

Caution ahead of the Fed’s decision has dampened demand for digital asset investment products this week. Reflecting that weaker appetite, the crypto Fear & Greed Index slipped to 50, in Neutral territory, on Friday from 68, in the Greed range, a day earlier. The pullback coincides with increased volatility before the policy announcement, with investors staying on the sidelines until the central bank’s policy direction becomes clear.

Technical analysis: Can Bitcoin maintain its bullish bias?

A positive near-term outlook remains intact for Bitcoin at $81,862, with the price above its key Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). Dynamic support is layered below the spot price, with the 50-day EMA near $80,879 and the SuperTrend line around $79,664. Further down, the 100-day EMA at $77,529 and the 200-day EMA at $76,209 lend additional support to the broader uptrend.

Momentum indicators paint a more restrained picture. With the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sitting just below 50 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remaining negative, further gains may be gradual and corrective rather than impulsive.

Buyers may seek to protect the existing bullish structure at the first support, the 50-day EMA at $80,879, and then at the SuperTrend baseline of $79,664. A steeper retreat would bring the 100-day EMA at $77,529 into focus, followed by another support layer at the 200-day EMA of $76,209.

Whether Bitcoin can remain above this EMA cluster is the central question, as the daily chart offers no clearly defined indicator resistance. Staying above the 50-day EMA would leave scope for the broader uptrend to resume gradually; a daily close below it would instead undermine the positive bias.

Crypto Finance also noted: "The $80,000-$81,000 area remains the line bulls have repeatedly defended, while $83,000 is the first level that would suggest buyers are beginning to regain control. Beyond that, the $85-$87,000 area remains the larger resistance zone that capped the September and early-October rally,"

Altcoins technical analysis: Can Ethereum and XRP recover in the short term?

A mildly positive near-term outlook holds for Ethereum at $2,410, above the 100-day EMA of $2,365 and the 200-day EMA of $2,317. The price has moved back above the break area of the rising support trendline near $2,368. However, gains remain constrained while Ethereum trades below the 50-period EMA at $2,475 and SuperTrend resistance at $2,675.

Rather than a strong bullish impulse, momentum appears to be stabilising: the MACD remains below zero despite a slight improvement, while the RSI stands around 41.

The recovered trendline area near $2,368 offers the nearest support, with the 100-EMA at $2,365 just below it. The next level is the 200-EMA around $2,317, where buyers may attempt to protect the broader uptrend structure.

On the upside, the 50-EMA near $2,475 provides the first resistance, followed by a firmer obstacle at the SuperTrend level around $2,675. Clearing these barriers on a daily closing basis would create room for a more decisive bullish extension. Conversely, losing the $2,368-$2,365 cluster would bring the $2,317 area back into focus.

Despite its recent rebound from lower levels, XRP retains a bearish broader outlook at $1.32. Selling pressure persists as the price remains below the 100-day EMA of $1.34, the 50-day EMA of $1.37 and the 200-day EMA of $1.38.

The prevailing downtrend is reinforced by the SuperTrend indicator at $1.47, well above the spot price. Although the RSI has recovered from oversold territory to around 43, it points to only limited bullish momentum within a predominantly bearish structure.

To relieve immediate selling pressure, XRP would need to sustain a close above its first resistance, the 100-day EMA at $1.34. Beyond that, a concentrated supply zone comprises the 50-day EMA at $1.37 and the 200-day EMA at $1.38. A decisive break through this band would be required to indicate a more lasting recovery, while the SuperTrend level of $1.47 remains an important medium-term barrier.

Should momentum weaken, the pair would be vulnerable to another round of selling, as the daily chart shows no nearby moving-average or trendline support.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)