Dogecoin Price Forecast: Could DOGE face a steeper decline amid diverging whale activity?

• Following five straight weekly declines, Dogecoin trades near $0.075 on Monday.
• Smaller whale wallets keep adding DOGE even as larger whales sell, according to Santiment data.
• Further downside remains a risk for DOGE as on-chain indicators weaken and the technical picture worsens.

Dogecoin (DOGE) remains exposed to further losses as on-chain indicators soften and its technical picture deteriorates. On Monday, the token trades near $0.075 following a fifth successive weekly decline since the end of September. Whale positioning is split, Santiment data indicates: larger holders are trimming their exposure, whereas smaller whale wallets are adding tokens.

Why are Dogecoin whales taking different positions?

A split in whale sentiment emerges from Santiment’s Supply Distribution data. Since Thursday, wallets with holdings of between 10 million and 100 million tokens (blue line) have sold 120 million DOGE tokens. Over the same period, whales in the 100,000 to 1 million (red line) and 1 million to 10 million (yellow line) holding bands have added 100 million DOGE tokens despite the price decline.

Smaller whale cohorts appear to be buying the dip, in contrast to the reduced exposure among larger holders. If selling by large wallets continues, it could intensify near-term selling pressure on the dog-themed meme coin.

What points to a bearish bias in on-chain data?

A bearish picture for Dogecoin emerges from CryptoQuant’s summary data. Large whale orders and heating conditions feature in both DOGE’s spot and futures markets, with sellers dominating each. Taken together, these signals point to cautious, bearish sentiment among meme coin traders.

Dogecoin technical outlook: What follows the break below key support zones?

The near-term bias remains bearish for Dogecoin as its retreat below all key Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) extends, with the price at $0.076 on Monday. Overhead supply is layered across the 50-day EMA at $0.082, the 100-day EMA at $0.083 and the 200-day EMA at $0.090. Recovery attempts also remain constrained by the descending resistance trendline, which last interacted with the price around $0.079.

Buying interest appears muted rather than signalling a clear reversal. Momentum is still weak: the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits in the mid-30s, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains flat around the zero line.

Any recovery would first encounter resistance near $0.079 in the broken trendline region. Beyond that, the 50-day EMA at $0.082 and the 100-day EMA at $0.083 are likely to attract selling pressure.

A broader ceiling is reinforced by the horizontal barrier at $0.088 and the 200-day EMA at $0.090 above those levels. Further away, resistance stands at $0.1027.

Should the decline deepen, dip-buying interest could emerge at the next major support, the horizontal floor near $0.068. A daily close beneath this zone would open the way for additional losses within the broader corrective phase.

(An AI tool assisted in writing the technical analysis for this article. Find out more.)