EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Pair Trades Near Nine-Day EMA Around 177.50

Downside pressure could take EUR/JPY towards key support at 175.70, its 12-month low.
Momentum appears muted, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index hovering near 41.
At 177.52, the nine-day EMA presents the first hurdle.

Bearish pressure persists in EUR/JPY, which is trading near 177.50 in Thursday’s Asian session as it declines for a second consecutive day. On the daily chart, the cross continues to trade inside a descending channel, pointing to a sustained bearish bias.

Trading below both the nine- and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) keeps the near-term outlook for EUR/JPY bearish. These averages now provide successive layers of resistance above the price. With the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 41, momentum remains subdued, favouring the view that the cross is undergoing corrective consolidation within a wider downward phase rather than staging a strong recovery.

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Initial support for EUR/JPY is at 175.70, the 12-month low recorded in November 2025, and the cross could retreat towards this level. Below it lies the descending channel’s lower boundary, around 175.10. A further fall beneath this confluence support zone would clear the way for a move towards the 15-month low of 169.72.

Any advance would first encounter the nine-day EMA at 177.52, before reaching the descending channel’s upper boundary near 178.80. The 50-day EMA at 179.74 offers additional resistance. Breaking above this confluence resistance zone would trigger a bullish reversal and support a move in EUR/JPY towards the all-time high of 187.95, set on 17 April.

Chart Analysis EUR/JPY — EUR/JPY: What Does the Daily Chart Show?

Can Himino’s AI-driven inflation warning support Yen bulls?

A consistently firm policy tone emerges from Himino’s speech, which FXS Speechtracker rates at 8.2, matching his historical average exactly. Strong AI-related demand is boosting capital expenditure and exports, while underlying inflation is approaching the 2% target. His emphasis on underlying inflation being likely to converge with the Bank of Japan goal, together with higher medium- and long-term inflation expectations, strengthens the view that Japan has largely moved beyond its disinflation phase.

With financial conditions still accommodative, real interest rates low and bank lending growing rapidly, Himino draws attention to a combination that increases concerns over upside inflation risks. He warns that delaying policy adjustments could create inflation risks and harm the economy, while stressing the need for appropriate monetary policy to ensure stable prices and sustainable growth. This amounts to a distinctly hawkish stance, which should underpin the Yen through expectations of gradual policy normalisation.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

How Is the Euro Performing Today?

The Euro’s weakest performance today was against the Swiss Franc. Its percentage moves against the major currencies listed are shown in the table below.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.17%	-0.07%	-0.22%	-0.10%	0.12%	0.12%	-0.20%
EUR	0.17%		0.09%	-0.05%	0.07%	0.27%	0.28%	-0.06%
GBP	0.07%	-0.09%		-0.13%	-0.04%	0.19%	0.17%	-0.14%
JPY	0.22%	0.05%	0.13%		0.10%	0.33%	0.30%	0.00%
CAD	0.10%	-0.07%	0.04%	-0.10%		0.23%	0.25%	-0.09%
AUD	-0.12%	-0.27%	-0.19%	-0.33%	-0.23%		-0.02%	-0.32%
NZD	-0.12%	-0.28%	-0.17%	-0.30%	-0.25%	0.02%		-0.29%
CHF	0.20%	0.06%	0.14%	-0.00%	0.09%	0.32%	0.29%

To read the heat map of percentage movements between major currencies, select the base currency in the left-hand column and the quote currency in the top row. For instance, choosing the Euro on the left and following that row across to the US Dollar gives the percentage change for EUR (base)/USD (quote) in the corresponding cell.