Ripple Price Forecast: XRP Drops Below $1.30 as Selling Pressure Intensifies

• Persistent selling across the cryptocurrency market keeps XRP in a correction below $1.30.
• Retail demand gathers momentum as perpetual futures open interest climbs to 2.21 billion XRP, while spot ETF activity stays subdued.
• Overhead moving averages and the SuperTrend line leave XRP’s technical structure weak.

Bearish sentiment across the broader crypto market and a deteriorating technical structure keep Ripple (XRP) below $1.30 on Tuesday, ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) October 28 monetary policy decision. In the United States (US), last week’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed inflation remaining elevated. That has cast doubt on the more likely scenario of the central bank holding interest rates steady in the 3.75-4.00% range.

A 25 basis points Fed rate increase is expected by just 17% of interest rate traders, while a much larger proportion anticipate a hike in December.

In an emailed analysis, Crypto Finance said: “Markets currently assign approximately an 85% probability to unchanged rates at the 28 October meeting, although expectations for another rate hike in December remain elevated,”

Why are XRP derivatives rising as ETF demand fades?

With traders reviewing their positions before the Fed decision, overall investor activity remains subdued. A modest improvement in retail demand is evident in derivatives: perpetual futures Open Interest (OI) averaged 2.21 billion XRP on Tuesday, compared with 2.16 billion XRP a day earlier.

Although OI has recovered from October’s lows of 2.12 billion XRP, it is still substantially below the September highs of 2.46 billion XRP and August highs of 2.77 billion XRP.

Institutional demand has also been quiet. XRP spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) recorded $105,000 in outflows on Thursday and $2.5 million on Friday, before activity turned subdued on Monday. Even so, SoSoValue data indicate a constructive longer-term trajectory, underpinned by cumulative inflows of $1.8 billion and total net assets of $1.5 billion.

Technical analysis: Could XRP face deeper losses?

Trading below $1.30, XRP has extended its decline beneath all major Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), leaving the near-term outlook bearish. The 100-day EMA at $1.34 remains above the price, as do the 50-day and 200-day EMAs grouped around $1.38. These successive layers of trend resistance suggest that recent rebounds are meeting a ceiling.

The momentum picture remains fragile. At 35, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits just above oversold territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains negative. Together, they suggest that downward pressure continues even as the sell-off loses some pace.

The first resistance level is the 100-day EMA at $1.34. A stronger barrier follows around $1.38, where the 50-day and 200-day EMAs converge. Further up, the SuperTrend line at $1.46 provides a higher recovery target; reclaiming it would be necessary to soften the broader bearish structure. The current set of indicators offers no clear structural support below $1.30. Until buyers lift the price back above the cluster of daily EMAs, the pair remains exposed to additional declines.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)