Solana Price Forecast: Why do persistent ETF outflows prolong downside risk for SOL?

• Selling pressure keeps Solana below $90 on Monday after an 8% fall last week breached a key support level and marked its fifth successive weekly loss.
• Selling pressure on SOL-focused ETFs extended into a fifth consecutive week, with outflows exceeding $26 million last week.
• Retail interest appears to be fading as SOL futures Open Interest and funding rates retreat.

Persistent selling keeps Solana (SOL) below $90 on Monday, although the token is edging higher after losing over 3% and slipping beneath a long-term support trendline the previous day. The decline over the past five weeks has coincided with five consecutive weeks of outflows totalling over $150 million from Solana-focused Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs). Retail participation is also weakening: sustained position unwinding has pushed Open Interest to a two-month low, while a negative funding rate reinforces the continuing bias towards selling.

With selling pressure continuing, the technical picture points to a risk of Solana falling towards $77.

Do ETF outflows and falling Open Interest signal more SOL weakness?

ETF redemptions and shrinking Open Interest (OI) are among several bearish indicators pointing to further downside risk for Solana. SoSoValue data shows nearly $170 million flowed out of Solana ETFs over the past five weeks. This includes $26.25 million last week and the largest weekly withdrawal of $71.47 million in the previous month. Against a backdrop of wider market uncertainty, these substantial redemptions indicate weakening institutional demand for Solana.

Meanwhile, SOL futures OI stands at $5.10 billion on Monday, according to CoinGlass, its lowest level since August 19. Positions have been steadily unwound from the October 8 peak of $7.62 billion. The reduction in positions has accompanied falling spot prices and ETF withdrawals, suggesting that ETF outflows are the principal driver of the continuing correction. A return to weekly ETF inflows could signal a possible trend reversal for traders awaiting a SOL rebound.

A funding rate of -0.0033%, however, points to a near-term preference for selling, with traders prepared to pay a premium to take short positions. Sunday's $33.64 million in long liquidations also exceeded short liquidations of $1.35 million, underscoring the greater selling pressure. 

Technical outlook: Can SOL hold above $80?

At the time of writing on Monday, Solana is quoted at $87.60, with the steady downtrend dating back to early October still intact. Last week's 8% fall extended October's 19% decline, taking SOL beneath both the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $99.26 and a long-term rising trendline near $90.41 that links the June 6 and August 1 lows. Meanwhile, the falling 50-day EMA at $100.35 is at risk of moving below the 200-day EMA. Such a crossover, commonly known as a death cross, would confirm a bearish trend reversal.

Daily momentum indicators continue to show weakness. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is close to oversold territory at 29, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains negative. Together, they suggest that selling pressure has yet to run its course despite the stretched conditions.

The nearest downside support lies just below the current price, at the horizontal level of $87.46, followed by a more significant demand zone around $77.60. A sustained breach of that zone would bring $67.50 and $60.13 into focus as deeper support levels, where the base of the broader uptrend from earlier months converges.

For any recovery, the first resistance lies near $90.41 at the broken trendline, with the horizontal barrier at $95.82 next.

(An AI tool assisted in preparing the technical analysis for this story. Learn more.)