Solana Price Forecast: Is pressure on SOL's long-term trendline signalling trouble?

• A long-term support trendline comes under pressure as Solana trades below $90 on Friday, following a loss of over 6% the day before.
• Sellers appear to have the upper hand as SOL futures Open Interest declines, with liquidations totalling roughly $40 million on Thursday.
• Selling pressure persists in SOL ETFs as Thursday’s withdrawals reach $1.18 million, following last week’s record weekly outflow of $71.47 million.

Selling pressure has pushed Solana (SOL) to a two-month low below $90.00 on Friday. The token lost over 6% the previous day, when liquidations across the broader cryptocurrency market exceeded $1 billion. Falling Open Interest in the derivatives market points to waning trader interest in Solana. Institutional investors also pulled $1.18 million from SOL-focused Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), adding to last week’s record outflow of $71.47 million. 

A break below horizontal support at $87.21 could, on technical grounds, leave Solana vulnerable to a further fall towards the $70.00 round-number level.

Why is Solana losing favour with retail and institutional investors?

Risk appetite for Solana among retail and institutional investors is weakening as macroeconomic uncertainty weighs on sentiment across the cryptocurrency market. A sweep by Democrats in the US midterms, alongside the ongoing AI debt crises, is fuelling risk aversion. 

After three consecutive days without flows, SOL-focused ETFs saw withdrawals of $1.18 million on Thursday. The pause suggests institutional investors had taken a breather following last week’s $71.47 million in withdrawals, which represented both the largest weekly outflow and the fourth consecutive week of outflows.

CoinGlass data puts SOL futures Open Interest (OI) at 59.45 million SOL, compared with 62.71 million on Monday, pointing to an unwinding of retail positions so far this week. Thursday’s liquidations totalled $42.87 million, of which long positions accounted for $39.37 million. The figures show that buy-side positions bore the brunt of liquidations as sellers reasserted control.

With ETF withdrawals and falling OI highlighting Solana’s diminishing appeal, downside risks could intensify further.

Technical outlook: Could Solana’s decline reach $70?

At the time of writing on Friday, Solana is quoted at $89.65 and remains on course for its sixth straight weekly decline. Trading below the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $99.62 keeps SOL’s near-term outlook bearish. Meanwhile, the falling 50-day EMA, at $101.92, risks slipping beneath the 200-day EMA, potentially signalling a Death Cross.

The long-term rising support trendline linking the lows of June 6 and 25 is being tested by SOL around $89.83. Should a break below that trendline be confirmed, horizontal support at $87.21 could come under threat. That would open the way for a sharper correction towards the $70.58 floor, which was last tested on August 1.

Daily momentum indicators also favour the bears. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 29, close to oversold territory, while the falling Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in negative territory beneath its signal line.

If the support trendline prompts a rebound, the first upside test could be the 200-day EMA at $99.62, with the 50-day EMA at $101.92 next in focus.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)