US CPI: Why is October’s reading key to the Fed’s path? – Deutsche Bank

Markets will assess what October’s US CPI release means for PCE inflation, with this being the final CPI report before the next Fed meeting. Deutsche Bank’s US economists forecast a marked slowdown from September’s strong reading, expecting both headline and core inflation at 0.20% month-on-month. They also flag that no year-on-year figure will be available because of last year’s government shutdown.

What Will the Final Inflation Check Before the Fed Meeting Show?

"Last month’s CPI print for September was a very strong one, with the fastest monthly headline CPI in six months, at +0.65%."

"However, this time, our US economists expect inflation to have come down from its September pace, with both headline and core at +0.20% on the month."

"However, this report will be slightly unusual because we won’t get a year-on-year number for inflation."

"That’s because of last year’s government shutdown, which meant the October 2025 inflation level wasn’t produced, so there isn’t a number from last year to compare it to."

"Looking at the day ahead now, the main data highlight will be the US CPI print for October, and we’ll also get the NFIB’s small business optimism index for October."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)