USD/CAD Price Forecast: Pair trades firmly ahead of US/Canada jobs data

USD/CAD surges towards 1.4073 as markets await October employment figures from the US and Canada.
The US Dollar leads gains as AI infrastructure shares face a worldwide sell-off.
Canada is expected to have added 13.6K workers to its workforce in October.

Heavy selling in the Canadian Dollar (CAD) against the US Dollar (USD) lifts USD/CAD on Friday. During European trading, the pair gains 0.45% to trade near 1.4073.

Broad US Dollar strength supports the Loonie pair ahead of the October United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, due at 13:30 GMT.

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Safe-haven demand amid a global Artificial Intelligence (AI) sell-off is supporting the US Dollar Index (DXY). At the time of writing, the index, which measures the Greenback against six major currencies, is up 0.35% at around 101.95.

How Is the US Dollar Performing Today?

Today's percentage moves in the US Dollar (USD) against the major currencies listed are set out below. The US Dollar recorded its largest gain against the New Zealand Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.38%	0.43%	0.24%	0.42%	0.78%	0.91%	0.18%
EUR	-0.38%		0.05%	-0.14%	0.06%	0.40%	0.53%	-0.20%
GBP	-0.43%	-0.05%		-0.19%	0.00%	0.35%	0.48%	-0.25%
JPY	-0.24%	0.14%	0.19%		0.19%	0.54%	0.67%	-0.06%
CAD	-0.42%	-0.06%	-0.00%	-0.19%		0.35%	0.47%	-0.25%
AUD	-0.78%	-0.40%	-0.35%	-0.54%	-0.35%		0.13%	-0.59%
NZD	-0.91%	-0.53%	-0.48%	-0.67%	-0.47%	-0.13%		-0.71%
CHF	-0.18%	0.20%	0.25%	0.06%	0.25%	0.59%	0.71%

Percentage movements between major currencies are displayed in the heat map. Select the base currency in the left-hand column and the quote currency in the top row. For instance, choosing the US Dollar on the left and following that row across to the Japanese Yen gives the percentage change for USD (base)/JPY (quote) in the corresponding cell.

Could US jobs growth exceed TD's subdued forecast?

TD Securities expects US nonfarm payroll growth to stay weak in October. Its economists forecast headline job additions of “40k after job gains moderated to 29k in September.” The bank puts that projection in context, saying that “despite the subdued, below-consensus print, our forecast would be within the range of breakeven job gains and result in an increase in the three-month moving average.” However, the eventual figure could surpass its baseline estimate, with TD emphasising that “risks to our payrolls forecast are to the upside,”.

October's Canadian labour market figures are also on investors' radar, with their release scheduled alongside the US NFP report.

Following September's reduction of 68.3K employees, Canadian employers are forecast to have added 13.6K workers. The Unemployment Rate is expected to hold at 6.5%.

Can USD/CAD Sustain Its Bullish Technical Bias?

A near-term bullish bias remains intact on the four-hour USD/CAD chart, where the pair trades at 1.4071. Price is holding above both the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.4000 and the key Fibonacci retracement levels of 1.4017 (50.0%) and 1.3950 (61.8%). Although the broader structure continues to offer support on declines, the latest rally may be overstretched: the Relative Strength Index (14) has entered overbought territory at around 71.6.

Further gains would first encounter resistance at 1.4084, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Beyond that lie the 23.6% level at 1.4167 and, should bullish momentum persist, the recent upper Fibonacci anchor near 1.4302. A reversal would bring immediate support at the 50.0% retracement of 1.4017 into focus, closely followed by the 20-period EMA at 1.4000. A sharper decline would leave the 61.8% retracement at 1.3950 exposed, with the Fibonacci base at 1.3733 providing a more distant structural floor.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Economic Data in Focus

What Does Net Change in Employment Measure?

Published by Statistics Canada, Net Change in Employment tracks changes in the number of employed people in Canada. An increase generally points to economic growth and has positive implications for consumer spending. A higher reading is therefore considered supportive of the Canadian Dollar (CAD), whereas a lower figure is viewed as negative for the currency.

Read further.

Next scheduled release: Fri 06 Nov 2026 13:30

Release frequency: Monthly

Consensus estimate: 13.6K

Previous reading: -68.3K

Data source: Statistics Canada

Why should traders watch this release?

The Canadian dollar often responds significantly to Canada’s labour market data, with the Employment Change reading exerting the greatest influence. Employment levels are closely correlated with consumption, which affects inflation and the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decisions, thereby influencing the C$. When actual readings exceed consensus estimates, they generally support CAD, while currency markets typically respond to the release in a steady and consistent manner.