USD/CHF Price Forecast: Below 0.8220, US Dollar remains exposed to downside risk

Despite recovering from eight-week lows of 0.8127, USD/CHF is still down more than 0.5% on the daily chart.
Broad-based US Dollar selling follows US President Donald Trump's midterm election defeat.
A Double Top around 0.8380 has been confirmed by Tuesday's rejection at 0.8220.

Selling pressure has erased Tuesday's US Dollar (USD) gains against the Swiss Franc (CHF), leaving the currency down more than 0.5% on the daily chart on Wednesday. Investors are weighing the implications of a decisive Democratic victory in the US midterm elections. Having recovered from nearly eight-week lows of 0.8127, USD/CHF is trading near 0.8160 in the early European session, although its broader downtrend remains firmly intact.

TMGM Analysis: Financial Market News, Economic Calendar & Market Insights

Broad-based selling hit the US Dollar on Wednesday after initial US election results signalled an unequivocal rejection of President Donald Trump's policies by voters. Control of Congress and the Senate has passed to the Democratic Party, which has also won staunch Republican strongholds such as Kansas, North Carolina, and Texas.

ING’s Chris Turner attributes the recent US Dollar recovery to factors including President Trump “accepting these results,” which has curbed follow-through selling after the midterms. The recovery, he says, “probably owes to the fact that the Democrats do not take office until January,” as well.

Turner nevertheless warns that “ A Democrat Congress would be a mild dollar negative – both in terms of what it would mean for the AI story and the prospect of a prolonged US government shutdown potentially from next summer.”

Technical Analysis: What does USD/CHF's confirmed Double Top around 0.8380 signal?

Despite an early European session rebound to 0.8159, USD/CHF continues to trade inside a bearish channel. Tuesday's rejection at 0.8220 confirms a Double Top (DT) formation at 0.8380, giving sellers further encouragement. Indicators on the 4-hour charts support the bearish assessment: the Relative Strength Index (14) is below 40 but remains above oversold territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is marginally negative. Together, these readings suggest that immediate upward momentum is fragile.

Although declines have so far been checked near 0.8130, the DT's measured target falls between 0.8050 and 0.8070, at the early September lows. For bulls to redirect attention towards the early November highs around 0.8250 and the October 28 high of 0.8313, the pair needs to break above the DT neckline at 0.8220.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Swiss Franc Performance Today

The Swiss Franc recorded its strongest performance against the US Dollar today. The table below sets out the Swiss Franc's (CHF) percentage changes against the major currencies listed.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.50%	-0.54%	-0.27%	-0.39%	-0.55%	-0.26%	-0.57%
EUR	0.50%		-0.04%	0.23%	0.09%	-0.07%	0.23%	-0.08%
GBP	0.54%	0.04%		0.28%	0.15%	-0.01%	0.26%	-0.05%
JPY	0.27%	-0.23%	-0.28%		-0.13%	-0.30%	-0.02%	-0.33%
CAD	0.39%	-0.09%	-0.15%	0.13%		-0.17%	0.11%	-0.19%
AUD	0.55%	0.07%	0.01%	0.30%	0.17%		0.27%	-0.02%
NZD	0.26%	-0.23%	-0.26%	0.02%	-0.11%	-0.27%		-0.30%
CHF	0.57%	0.08%	0.05%	0.33%	0.19%	0.02%	0.30%

Percentage movements between major currencies are displayed in the heat map. Select the base currency in the left-hand column and the quote currency in the top row. For instance, choosing the Swiss Franc on the left and following its row across to the US Dollar gives the percentage change for CHF (base)/USD (quote) in the corresponding cell.