WTI Price Forecast: Bullish bias remains intact as price retreats from multi-month high near 104.00

WTI finds it difficult to extend its Asian-session rally after reaching its highest level since 19 May.
Bulls book some profits as hopes rise for a diplomatic breakthrough in the Middle East.
Concerns over supply disruptions lend support, alongside a favourable technical outlook.

Selling pressure has pulled West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil price benchmark, back from its highest level since 19 May, although further losses appear limited. The peak came near $104.00 during Friday’s Asian session. With supply disruption concerns offsetting hopes for Middle East diplomacy, the commodity remains above the round $102.00 level and is trading higher for a third consecutive day.

TMGM Analysis: Financial Market News, Economic Calendar & Market Insights

Renewed diplomatic efforts include a direct letter from US Vice President JD Vance to Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, seeking to resume peace negotiations. Qatar has also submitted a fresh draft agreement to Iran aimed at ending the war with the US and Israel. On Thursday, however, Iran’s navy claimed that four oil tankers had hit sea mines in the Strait of Hormuz. Investors are also cautious as hostilities intensify between Saudi Arabia and the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen. A geopolitical risk premium therefore remains in place and could keep supporting crude oil prices.

The technical outlook remains bullish after crude oil recently broke above its 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart. Supportive momentum indicators and the recent rise within an upward-sloping parallel channel reinforce this positive view. With the Relative Strength Index (14) near 57 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) having edged into positive territory, buyers appear to retain control of the short-term trend. The channel’s lower boundary, at $100.49, provides a near-term demand zone.

A move below channel support would be needed to indicate a more substantial weakening of the bullish structure, opening the way for a decline towards the 100-period EMA at $96.97. On the upside, the ascending channel’s upper boundary near $107.22 marks the key resistance level; failure to overcome it would likely lead to consolidation or a corrective decline.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

WTI: 4-hour price chart

WTI Oil: Frequently Asked Questions

What does WTI Oil refer to?

Traded internationally, WTI is a variety of crude oil whose name stands for West Texas Intermediate. Alongside Brent and Dubai Crude, it is one of the three major types. Its relatively low gravity earns it the description “light”, while its low sulphur content makes it “sweet”. Regarded as a high-quality oil, WTI is easy to refine. It originates in the United States and is distributed through the Cushing hub, known as “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. WTI serves as an oil market benchmark, with its price regularly cited in media reports.

What determines WTI Oil prices?

Supply and demand underpin WTI Oil prices, as they do those of other assets. Stronger global growth can lift demand, whereas weaker growth can have the reverse effect. Supply disruptions caused by political instability, wars or sanctions can also affect prices. Another important influence is the production decisions taken by OPEC, a group of major oil-producing countries. Since oil is traded predominantly in US Dollars, the currency’s value also affects WTI Crude Oil prices: a weaker US Dollar can make oil more affordable, while a stronger dollar can do the opposite.

Why do inventory figures affect WTI Oil prices?

WTI Oil prices respond to weekly oil inventory releases from the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA), as stock movements reflect shifts in supply and demand. A fall in inventories may point to stronger demand and push oil prices higher. Conversely, rising inventories may signal greater supply and weigh on prices. The API publishes its figures every Tuesday, followed by the EIA the next day. The two reports generally show similar results, with readings within 1% of each other 75% of the time. As the EIA is a government agency, its data is regarded as more reliable.

How do OPEC decisions affect WTI Oil prices?

At meetings held twice a year, the 12 oil-producing nations that make up OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) jointly set production quotas for member countries. These decisions frequently affect WTI Oil prices. A reduction in quotas can constrain supply and lift oil prices, while an increase in production has the reverse effect. The broader OPEC+ grouping includes ten additional non-OPEC members, with Russia the most prominent among them.