WTI Price Forecast: Bullish potential appears intact despite further decline below $100.50

Selling pressure weighs on WTI as the week begins, with hopes rising for reduced hostilities in the Middle East.
A continuing standoff between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia keeps the geopolitical risk premium intact.
A favourable technical structure suggests buyers could emerge on dips to lower levels.

Selling pressure on West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – extends into the Asian session after a bearish gap lower at the start of the week. Having reached a five-month high on Friday, the commodity retreats further to below the mid-$100.00s. Persistent geopolitical uncertainty, however, appears likely to limit its downside.

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Hopes of an easing in Middle East tensions are encouraging some crude oil selling as the new week gets under way. On Sunday, US President Donald Trump ruled out immediate military action against Iran. Earlier, amid mounting Iranian and Houthi threats to American interests in the region, Trump had suggested that the US might need to finish the job or potentially strike a deal with Tehran.

The geopolitical backdrop nevertheless remains unsettled. According to an unnamed US official speaking to an Israeli news channel, Trump was ready to change course on Iran, with military strikes seemingly becoming a matter of when rather than if. On Sunday, Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis also threatened to continue attacks on Saudi Arabia's King Khalid Airport in Riyadh. With US-Iran talks stalled, the geopolitical risk premium remains a factor that could underpin crude oil prices.

The near-term technical outlook remains bullish while crude holds above both the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the advance from the monthly low. A mildly positive Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reading just above the zero line adds support to that view. Meanwhile, a Relative Strength Index reading near 55 points to steady upward momentum.

Should prices decline further, the first support could emerge around $99.30, where the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement lies. Below that, the 50-period SMA near $97.83 and the 38.2% retracement at $96.84 combine to create a broader demand zone on pullbacks. For buyers, the nearest resistance is the Fibonacci anchor around $103.29. A sustained move above it would clear the path for the recent, well-established uptrend to extend.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

WTI: 4-hour price chart

WTI Oil: Key Questions Answered

What distinguishes WTI Oil?

Among the Crude Oil varieties traded internationally, WTI, short for West Texas Intermediate, is one of three major types alongside Brent and Dubai Crude. Its relatively low gravity earns it the description “light”, while its low sulphur content accounts for the term “sweet”. These characteristics make it a high-quality Oil that is easy to refine. Produced in the United States, WTI is distributed through the Cushing hub, known as “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. As an Oil market benchmark, its price is regularly cited by the media.

What determines WTI Oil prices?

Supply and demand underpin WTI Oil pricing, as they do for other assets. Stronger global growth can lift demand, while weaker growth can have the reverse effect. On the supply side, political instability, wars and sanctions can cause disruptions and affect prices. Production decisions by OPEC, the group of major Oil-producing countries, are another important influence. Since Oil is traded predominantly in US Dollars, changes in the US Dollar's value also matter: a weaker Dollar can make WTI Crude Oil more affordable, while a stronger Dollar can make it less so.

Why do inventory reports affect WTI Oil prices?

WTI Oil prices respond to the weekly Oil inventory figures released by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA), as stock changes signal shifts in supply and demand. Falling inventories can point to stronger demand and push Oil prices higher. Conversely, a build-up can indicate increased supply and weigh on prices. The API releases its report every Tuesday, followed by the EIA the next day. The two sets of figures tend to be similar, coming within 1% of each other 75% of the time. As the EIA is a government agency, its data is regarded as more reliable.

Why do OPEC decisions matter for WTI Oil prices?

At meetings held twice a year, the 12 Oil-producing nations in OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) jointly set production quotas for member countries. These decisions frequently affect WTI Oil prices: lower quotas can constrain supply and lift prices, whereas higher production has the reverse effect. The wider OPEC+ grouping includes ten additional non-OPEC members, with Russia the most notable.