Near 104.00: WTI Price Forecast as prices retreat from multi-month high, bullish bias intact

WTI reaches its highest level since May 19 in Asian trading but struggles to extend the advance.
Bulls lock in some profits as prospects for Middle East diplomacy improve.
A supportive technical backdrop and supply disruption concerns underpin prices.

Around $104.00 marked a fresh high for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) on Friday. The US Crude Oil benchmark reached that level during Asian trading, its highest since May 19, before pulling back. Further losses appear limited, however. Prices remain above $102.00 and on course for a third consecutive daily gain, with concerns over supply disruptions offsetting hopes for Middle East diplomacy.

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Efforts to revive peace talks have included a direct letter from US Vice President JD Vance to Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council. Qatar has also submitted a new draft agreement to Iran aimed at ending the war with the US and Israel. Against that diplomatic backdrop, Iran's navy claimed on Thursday that four oil tankers had hit sea mines in the Strait of Hormuz. Intensifying hostilities between Saudi Arabia and the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen are also keeping investors cautious. These risks sustain the geopolitical premium, which could continue to support crude oil prices.

The technical outlook remains bullish after prices recently broke above the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart. An advance within a rising parallel channel reinforces that outlook, alongside supportive momentum indicators. The Relative Strength Index (14) is holding around 57, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has edged into positive territory. Together, they indicate that buyers retain near-term control. The channel's lower boundary at $100.49 provides an underlying area of demand in the near term.

Near $107.22, the rising channel's upper boundary forms the main resistance. A rejection there would likely lead to consolidation or a corrective decline. A break beneath channel support, by contrast, would be needed to indicate a more substantial weakening of the bullish structure. That would open the way towards the 100-period EMA at $96.97.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Learn more.)

4-hour WTI chart

WTI Oil: Key Questions

WTI Oil: What does it mean?

Among the Crude Oil varieties traded internationally, WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate. It is one of three major types, alongside Brent and Dubai Crude. Its relatively low gravity and sulphur content earn it the descriptions “light” and “sweet”, respectively. This high-quality Oil is considered easy to refine. Produced in the United States, it is distributed through the Cushing hub, known as “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. WTI serves as an Oil market benchmark, with its price regularly cited by the media.

WTI Oil prices: The main drivers

Supply and demand determine WTI Oil prices, as they do for other assets. Stronger global growth can lift demand, while weaker growth can have the reverse effect. Wars, political instability and sanctions may interrupt supply and affect prices. Another major influence is OPEC, the group of leading Oil-producing countries, through its production decisions. Because Oil is traded predominantly in US Dollars, the currency's value also matters for WTI Crude Oil prices. A weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable; a stronger one can have the opposite effect.

WTI Oil prices: Why inventories matter

Weekly inventory releases from the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) influence WTI Oil prices by showing changes in the supply-demand balance. Falling stocks may signal stronger demand and lift Oil prices. Rising inventories can indicate greater supply and weigh on prices. The API publishes its report each Tuesday, followed by the EIA the next day. The two releases generally show similar results: 75% of the time, their figures are within 1% of each other. As the EIA is a government agency, its data is regarded as more reliable.

WTI Oil prices: OPEC's influence

At meetings held twice a year, the 12 Oil-producing nations in OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) jointly set production quotas for members. Those decisions frequently affect WTI Oil prices. Lower quotas can restrict supply and lift prices, whereas increased OPEC output has the reverse effect. The broader OPEC+ grouping adds ten non-OPEC members, with Russia the most notable among them.