TMGM Daily Market Breakfast: 26 September 2026

Morning Snapshot

• U.S. Treasury yields remained near multi-decade highs, with the 30-year yield reaching a 22-year high and the 10-year yield holding around 5.20% after touching 5.228%.
• Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said current U.S. monetary policy is not restraining the economy and that high inflation continues to complicate economic planning.
• The PBoC reiterated a moderately loose policy stance, pledged to keep the yuan broadly stable, left its one-year and five-year loan prime rates unchanged at 3.0% and 3.50%, and stepped up liquidity support.
• ECB Vice President Boris Vujcic warned that a prolonged energy shock, including persistently high diesel prices, could keep euro-area inflation elevated even after the ECB began tightening.
• The SEC declared Bitwise’s NEAR ETF registration effective and Bitwise filed Form 8-A for a proposed NYSE Arca listing under the ticker NRR, moving the product closer to trading.
• NEAR rose above $5 and extended its rally, with the token up 240% year to date as ETF progress coincided with broader ecosystem activity.
• USD/CHF held near 0.8285, close to levels last seen in May 2025, as the policy-rate gap between the Federal Reserve and the Swiss National Bank kept pressure on the franc.
• Ahead of next week’s RBA decision, expectations for a 25-basis-point rate increase remained in focus as Australia’s labour market, GDP and inflation data continued to point to a still-hot economy.

Market Developments

Government Bonds

U.S. Treasury yields were mixed, with the long end of the curve rising as the 30-year yield hit a 22-year high while the 10-year yield held around 5.20% after peaking at 5.228%, a 19-year high.

Foreign Exchange

USD/CNY rebounded after briefly dipping below 6.70 as higher U.S. Treasury yields combined with a modest easing in PBoC control of the currency, while USD/CHF held near 0.8285 and remained on track for a fourth straight weekly gain.

Cryptocurrencies

NEAR climbed above $5, extending a sharp multi-week rally and taking its year-to-date gain to 240% as progress on a proposed Bitwise ETF added to momentum around the network.

Macroeconomics & Central Banks

U.S. Treasury Yields Hold Near Multi-Decade Highs

U.S. Treasury yields stayed elevated through the reporting period, with the long end of the curve under particular pressure. The 30-year yield reached a 22-year high, while the 10-year Treasury yield held around 5.20% after touching 5.228%, its highest level in 19 years. Moves were mixed across the curve, with gains concentrated in 20-year and 30-year maturities while shorter-dated yields and the belly of the curve eased from multi-year highs.

The persistence of elevated long-term borrowing costs kept fixed-income markets focused on the broader policy backdrop, with yields remaining near levels that underscore how firmly restrictive U.S. rate expectations have become in market pricing.

Fed’s Hammack Says Policy Is Not Yet Restricting the Economy

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said the Federal Reserve’s two mandates are not in conflict and argued that current policy is still not restraining the economy despite elevated inflation. She said high inflation complicates economic planning, reinforcing the view that price pressures remain a central policy concern.

Her remarks added to the hawkish tone surrounding the U.S. rates outlook during a session when Treasury yields remained near multi-decade highs, particularly at the long end of the curve.

PBoC Keeps Loan Prime Rates Unchanged and Steps Up Liquidity Support

China’s central bank reiterated its commitment to a moderately loose monetary stance and to keeping the yuan broadly stable, while leaving the one-year and five-year loan prime rates unchanged at 3.0% and 3.50% respectively. The policy message came as Chinese authorities maintained a controlled approach to currency management after USD/CNY rebounded from a brief move below 6.70.

Liquidity support was also increased. The PBoC raised the daily reverse repo cap to CNY1tn and injected a net CNY200bn through medium-term lending facility operations, signalling a readiness to adjust policy tools as required.

ECB’s Vujcic Warns Energy Prices Could Keep Inflation Elevated

ECB Vice President Boris Vujcic said the euro area faces a risk that higher-for-longer energy prices could keep inflation hot, warning in particular that diesel prices are set to remain elevated for an extended period and feed through into broader price pressures.

His comments underscored the inflation risks still confronting the ECB even after it began a tightening cycle, with energy costs remaining a key source of concern for the policy outlook.

Fed-SNB Rate Gap Keeps Pressure on the Swiss Franc

USD/CHF held near 0.8285, close to levels last seen in May 2025, as the widening interest-rate gap between the Federal Reserve and the Swiss National Bank continued to weigh on the franc. The pair remained on track for a fourth consecutive weekly gain even as the U.S. dollar eased slightly after a strong weekly rally.

The Swiss National Bank’s 0% policy rate has kept the franc attractive as a funding currency for carry trades, reinforcing the impact of policy divergence with the United States.

Regulation & Digital Assets

SEC Clears Key Registration Step for Bitwise NEAR ETF

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission declared Bitwise’s registration statement for its NEAR ETF effective, clearing an important regulatory hurdle for the proposed fund. Bitwise also filed Form 8-A to register the fund’s common shares for listing on NYSE Arca under the ticker NRR.

The filings move the product closer to trading on a U.S. exchange, although they do not establish a launch date. The proposed ETF is designed to give investors exposure to the value of NEAR held by the fund.

NEAR Extends Rally Above $5 as ETF Progress and Ecosystem Activity Build

NEAR Protocol’s native token climbed above $5 on Friday, extending a sharp multi-week rally as progress on the proposed Bitwise ETF coincided with broader activity across the network’s ecosystem. The token is up 240% year to date after reversing earlier losses.

The protocol also announced its listing on Hyperliquid’s strict list after going live on the Hyperliquid spot market, adding to the run of developments supporting market attention on the asset.

Upcoming Key Events

RBA Decision in Focus After Firm Australian Data

Attention is turning to next week’s Reserve Bank of Australia decision, with expectations centred on a 25-basis-point rate increase. The backdrop includes tight labour-market conditions, upside surprises in second-quarter GDP growth and stronger-than-expected inflation readings.

August CPI is projected at 4.1% year on year in the supplied coverage, with diesel and food prices cited as key drivers alongside persistent core inflation pressures. The housing market has shown signs of cooling, but inflation risks remain a central focus ahead of the meeting.

Upcoming Key Events

• Reserve Bank of Australia Policy Decision — Tuesday: The RBA decision is in focus amid expectations for a 25-basis-point rate increase, with labour-market strength, firmer GDP growth and elevated inflation shaping the backdrop.