US Midterm Elections Approach: Where Does the Race Stand, and What Are the Key Variables?

A joint Washington Post–ABC poll conducted from October 9 to 13 put Trump’s approval rating at 33%, with 66% disapproving, including 52% who “strongly disapprove.” That same week, Fox News recorded an approval rating of 36%, its lowest reading across his two terms. The Wall Street Journal put it at 37%, the lowest presidential approval rating ahead of a midterm election since its records began in 1990. NBC’s figures released today show 34%. The four organizations used different methodologies and samples, and their polling periods did not fully overlap. Yet the conclusion was consistent: his approval rating has fallen to its lowest point in office.

By issue, the weakest ratings concern people’s finances. On the cost of living, 21% approve and 77% disapprove; on inflation, the split is 23% to 75%; and on the economy, 28% to 70%. His handling of the war with Iran receives 27% approval and 70% disapproval. Disapproval reaches 70% or higher across all four issues.

Immigration, one of his strongest vote-winning issues in 2024, now stands at 38% approval and 61% disapproval. NBC’s demographic breakdown shows his approval rating among Republican adults at 76%, down from the previous reading. Among independents, it is 21%; among men under 30, 28%, even though he won that group by one percentage point in 2024; and among Hispanic adults, 31%.

Another set of figures is equally revealing. Some 48% of respondents say their financial situation is worse than before the current administration took office, the highest proportion since the Washington Post and ABC began asking this question in 1986. Meanwhile, 58% say his policies are hurting the country, compared with 28% who say they are helping.

The Cost of Living Is the Root Cause of Low Approval

The United States went to war with Iran in late February, and shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz have continued to rise. At the October 16 close, Brent crude stood at $109.86 a barrel and WTI at $101.41. September CPI rose 3.7% year on year, while PPI increased 6.3%. Gasoline prices jumped 9.1% month on month, accounting for more than half of the monthly CPI increase.

In a February survey, 71% of Americans considered gasoline affordable. In the same survey in October, 71% said it was unaffordable. The pressure extends beyond gasoline. Some 60% say groceries are difficult to afford. For healthcare costs, the figure is 65%, up from 56% in February; for household energy, 57%, up from 45%; and for rent or mortgage payments, 50%, up from 37%.

Some 60% identify the cost of living as their biggest economic concern. Government spending ranks second at just 15%, followed by employment at 7% and tariffs at 6%. Trump has tried to address the issue with checks, promising $5,000 payments if Republicans retain control of Congress. Only 14% believe they will “definitely” or “probably” receive the money, while 71% believe they will not. Even among Republicans, 47% are skeptical.

Where the Race Currently Stands

The House has 435 seats. Republicans hold 218, with one additional independent caucusing with them; Democrats hold 214, and two seats are vacant. Democrats need a net gain of just three seats to secure a majority. Since World War II, the president’s party has lost an average of 28 House seats in midterm elections. Three seats fall well below that average, so the overall number required is not the main obstacle. More troubling for Republicans, they are defending two and a half times as many vulnerable districts as their opponents. On October 9, the Cook Political Report rated 21 districts as toss-ups, 15 of which are held by Republicans.

The Senate is different. It has 100 seats, two per state regardless of population, with only about one-third contested every two years. This year, 35 seats are up for election, most of them defended by Republicans, including many in states Trump won comfortably in 2024. House seats are allocated by population, whereas each state has two senators, so more populous states receive no additional Senate seats. To achieve a net gain of four, Democrats must first hold Georgia and Michigan, then win North Carolina and Maine, followed by one of Ohio, Texas, Alaska, or Iowa.

Among these races, North Carolina offers Democrats the strongest prospects. It is an open seat, and former Governor Cooper leads by five to 11 percentage points. In Maine, Collins is seeking reelection. Democrats are spending more there than in any other Senate race, yet the contest remains a toss-up. In Ohio, former Senator Brown is polling at 49% to 51%, compared with incumbent Husted’s 46%, with the gap within the margin of error. In Texas, a Harris County poll puts Talarico at 58% and Paxton at 36%. However, this is a county poll, not a statewide survey, and Democrats have historically enjoyed a larger advantage in Harris County than across Texas as a whole. Looking west, Kansas last elected a Democratic senator in 1932. Polls there now show a nearly even race, although none has shown the Democrat ahead. Margins in these contests range from one to five percentage points, meaning even a small change in turnout could reverse the outcome.

By October 16, more than six million Americans had voted across 39 states, including returned mail ballots and in-person early votes. Ohio’s secretary of state said early turnout was nearly four times the level recorded four years earlier. In Georgia, 188,000 people voted on the first day of early voting, October 13, setting a state record for a midterm election.

North Carolina is the only state to have released a complete breakdown by party affiliation. On October 15, the first day of in-person early voting, 201,546 ballots were cast, compared with 135,348 in 2022. Democrats cast 95,729 ballots, or 47.5%; Republicans cast 40,093, or 19.9%; and unaffiliated voters cast 65,724, or 32.6%. Democrats led by 27.4 percentage points. Meanwhile, the total number of mail ballots in North Carolina is 31% lower than at the same point in 2022. Republicans have been directing supporters toward in-person voting on Election Day, which has reduced their share of early ballots.

The equivalent figures four years ago offer some perspective: Democrats also led on the first day, by six percentage points, yet Republicans ultimately won North Carolina’s Senate seat that year. Early voting indicates enthusiasm only. Some 72% of Democratic supporters say they will definitely vote, compared with 65% of Republicans. How that translates into actual ballots will become clear on Election Day.

Polls face a similar limitation. In 2024, national polls underestimated Republican support in swing states by around three percentage points. A three-point error would not change the House outcome, given Democrats’ eight- to nine-point lead on the generic congressional ballot. In the Senate, however, the situation is different: margins in the four key states are only one to five points.

Market Expectations

The S&P 500 has risen 2.6% since August. Over the same period, JPMorgan’s “Democratic factor” has gained around 20%, while its corresponding “Republican factor” has fallen 14.57%. The strategy scores roughly 3,000 US stocks according to their sensitivity to changes in election odds, using a long-short structure designed to remain market-neutral.

Wall Street’s baseline assumption for the broader market remains a “divided Congress”: Democrats take the House, while Republicans retain the Senate. The policy implications of this combination are the easiest to project. Institutions have isolated election risk into a pair of long-short instruments that allow them to transfer that exposure among themselves, enabling the index to continue trading on existing assumptions.

Prediction markets price the two chambers separately. The odds of Democrats winning both have risen to 64%–65%, from 23% in late August. Their chances of winning the House alone stand at around 90%, while the Senate is priced at roughly 56%. That 56% Senate probability falls well short of the advantage suggested by an eight- to nine-point lead on the generic congressional ballot. Quantitative models place greater weight on national polling and presidential approval, projecting at least 224 House seats for Democrats. Traditional election forecasters assess candidates, fundraising, and local conditions district by district. They project a net gain of only nine to 19 seats and describe the Senate as a “genuine toss-up.” Since Senate seats are decided state by state, the latter approach more closely reflects how the chamber is constituted.

On the night of November 3, the first counties to report results will provide early signals. North Carolina and Maine are must-wins for Democrats, while they must count on winning either Ohio or Texas. If they fall even one seat short of the four required, the Senate will remain in Republican hands.