Bitcoin and Gold Outlook: What next as BTC tests $75K and XAU retreats with US Nonfarm Payrolls climbing to 165K in October?

• Following a test of psychological support at $75,000, Bitcoin trades close to $76,000 on Friday.
• A pullback below $4,050 leaves Gold with smaller weekly gains after reaching highs near $4,147.
• Market expectations of 65K were comfortably exceeded as US Nonfarm Payrolls rose to 165K in October.

Bearish sentiment is gaining ground in markets on Friday, with both Bitcoin (BTC) and Gold (XAU/USD) trading lower. Near $76,000, the Crypto King is down 0.98% for the day and nearly 4% since Monday. Gold, meanwhile, has slipped below $4,050, leaving it well short of the weekly peak of $4,147.

Concerns over possible regulatory obstacles are mounting among market participants as the Democratic Party prepares to take control of Congress in January. Against this backdrop, Bitcoin’s pullback has pared the gains seen earlier in the week following the United States (US) midterm elections.

In an analysis report sent by email, Crypto Finance said, “Elizabeth Warren, one of the industry’s most vocal critics, is expected to take over the Senate Banking Committee when the new Congress convenes in January, although the appointment has not yet been formally confirmed,” adding, “Warren has consistently advocated for tighter oversight of crypto, potentially making the path toward regulatory clarity longer and more restrictive than the industry had hoped.”

What does October’s US Nonfarm Payrolls rise signal?

Despite lingering price pressures and other macroeconomic concerns, the US economy showed resilience as Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increased by 165,000 in October. Friday’s report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) put the gain well above the market consensus of 65,000.

The October reading came after September’s increase of 60,000, revised upwards from 29,000.

During the period, the unemployment rate fell from 4.2% to 4.1%, while the Labour Force Participation Rate edged up from 61.8% to 61.9%. Measured by the change in Average Hourly Earnings, annual wage inflation eased from a revised 3.2% to 3.1%.

Following the NFP release, Gold is deepening its decline, while Bitcoin continues to show signs of a downtrend as the weekend approaches. Before taking positions in anticipation of a rebound, bullish traders will monitor how the two assets behave around key support: $75,000 for Bitcoin and $4,000 for Gold.

Crypto Finance added, “Near term, the market still needs to find its footing, but our medium-term view remains unchanged. The themes that showed real adoption before the sell-off remain the ones to watch, and further weakness may ultimately create better opportunities in the parts of the market where activity and conviction persist,”

Technical analysis: Can Bitcoin ease the sellers’ grip?

At $76,006, Bitcoin remains below its key Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), leaving the near-term outlook bearish. The first barrier above the spot price is the 200-day EMA at $76,508. Further resistance comes from the 100-day EMA at $77,775 and the Bollinger Bands’ midline at $79,770, while the 50-day EMA at $79,833 adds to the supply overhead.

Recent consolidation has done little to dispel downside pressure. Momentum is still subdued, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) close to 38 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) below zero.

A test of the lower Bollinger band at $75,130, the immediate support level, could attract buyers on dips. For bearish pressure to begin easing, Bitcoin would first need a daily close above the 200-day EMA at $76,508. A further recovery past the 100-day EMA at $77,775 and the Bollinger Bands’ midline at $79,770 would then be required to clear the way towards the 50-day EMA at $79,833. The broader resistance zone near $84,409 would come into contention only after a sustained break above that cluster.

Technical analysis: Can Gold retain gains under sustained selling pressure?

A closely grouped set of moving averages continues to weigh on Gold, which trades at $4,048. Overhead resistance comprises the 50-day EMA at $4,154, the 100-day EMA at $4,234 and the 200-day EMA at $4,260. These barriers leave the near-term outlook bearish, despite the positive momentum that took prices to highs around $4,147 on Thursday.

Although the MACD has moved into positive territory and the RSI is near 47, Gold remains below the Bollinger Bands’ middle band at $4,066. These structural obstacles suggest that any recovery attempt is likely to face a ceiling.

The first hurdle is the middle Bollinger band near $4,066, with the 50-day EMA at $4,154 next in line. Beyond this, the 100-day EMA and the upper Bollinger band, both at $4,234, create a tight resistance cluster. Further up lie the more strategically significant 200-day EMA at $4,260 and the descending line break level at $4,346. On the downside, the next meaningful support is the lower Bollinger band at $3,898. A breach would likely leave Gold vulnerable to further losses within the broader bearish phase.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)