Bitcoin Price Forecast: What next for BTC after reclaiming $81,000 as traders await Fed policy decision and Big Tech earnings?

• Bitcoin’s recovery gathers pace as it regains $81,000 on Wednesday, with investors awaiting the Fed’s policy announcement and forthcoming Big Tech earnings.
• A second straight day of inflows brings $175.99 million into spot Bitcoin ETFs on Tuesday.
• Thin market participation and inactive investors are central concerns in a K33 Research report, which flags an approaching surge in volatility.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) recovery extended on Wednesday as the cryptocurrency regained $81,000, while investors awaited the Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy announcement and forthcoming Big Tech earnings. A second successive day of inflows into spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) this week pointed to mildly bullish institutional demand. 

At the same time, subdued participation and investor inactivity remain major concerns, according to a K33 Research report, which cautions that the Crypto King could be nearing a period of greater volatility.

Can institutional demand sustain its cautious bullish bias before the Fed rate decision?

A cautiously bullish tone continues to characterise institutional demand for Bitcoin. Tuesday brought $175.99 million of inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, compared with $110.34 million on Monday, SoSoValue data showed, pointing to modest buying interest among institutions. Nevertheless, the inflows are smaller than those seen last week. This suggests investors remain cautious before the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate announcement later on Wednesday.

Keeping the benchmark interest rate within the existing 3.75% to 4.00% target range is widely expected to be the Fed’s decision on Wednesday. The CME FedWatch tool puts the market-implied probability of unchanged rates at the October meeting at 90.6%, while the likelihood of a December rate increase stands at 84.4%. For indications of the central bank’s economic assessment and the path of monetary policy, traders will scrutinise Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s comments at his press conference. 

Should the tone prove hawkish, risk appetite could weaken and BTC could come under pressure. A more dovish message, by contrast, could help sustain BTC’s recovery.

Caution among BTC traders also reflects tensions in the Middle East. According to the Wall Street Journal, several Gulf Arab countries have been told by the US to prepare for a “short, intense military campaign” following the US midterm elections. 

Crude oil has found support from these developments: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is up more than 1% on the day at about $101 per barrel. By adding to inflation worries, higher oil prices could weaken risk appetite and limit BTC’s gains.

How could Big Tech earnings influence risk appetite?

Earnings from leading technology companies are another focus for market participants. Wednesday’s Q3 reporting schedule includes Microsoft and Alphabet, with Amazon set to follow on Thursday. 

If the results validate sustained heavy spending on Artificial Intelligence (AI), concerns about hyperscaler valuations could ease, helping risk appetite. Disappointing numbers, however, could intensify the current AI-driven market sell-off, putting pressure on risk-sensitive assets including Bitcoin.

Is the quiet market setting up a volatility surge?

In its Tuesday report, K33 Research identified weak market participation and investor inactivity as major concerns for BTC prices, cautioning that a rise in volatility could be drawing closer.

At 1.3%, the 30-day volatility of perpetual Open Interest (OI) is at its 26th lowest level since June 2021. Meanwhile, 30-day price volatility sits in this decade’s 2nd percentile. With traders staying on the sidelines, trading volumes have also fallen to lows not seen between March 2024 and June 2026. 

The analyst further noted: “Calm like this lets leverage build gradually until a price move forces positions to close and pushes prices further. Regimes this quiet rarely last for long, so a volatility expansion looks likely soon. This also fits well with the frantic pace of the upcoming event calendar, setting the stage for prices to once again start swinging,”

Bitcoin technical outlook: Can mild bullish signals support further gains?

Trading at $81,113 on Wednesday, Bitcoin retains a constructive bullish bias while consolidating above a closely grouped set of Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). Below the spot price are the 50-day EMA at $80,816, the 100-day EMA at $77,813 and the 200-day EMA at $76,395. Their positioning suggests the wider uptrend continues to have support despite the recent retreat. 

Yet momentum remains subdued. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 46, while Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains below zero, pointing for now to consolidation rather than a fresh, forceful advance.

Near $85,000, horizontal resistance presents the first significant upside barrier. Selling pressure at this level has previously restrained gains, making it the key threshold bulls must overcome to restore upward momentum.

Initial buying interest on a decline is expected near the 50-day EMA at $80,816. Further down, support lies at the 100-day EMA at $77,813 and the 200-day EMA around $76,395. A daily close beneath this EMA band would materially weaken the existing bullish structure and leave scope for a deeper correction.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)