British Pound trades flat as US jobs strength and election risks come into focus

GBP/USD gains 0.10% even as US labour market figures show strength.
A 1.8% surge in US Factory Orders accompanies job openings of 7.5 million.
Sterling draws support from BoE rate hike bets as US midterm elections approach.

Sterling holds a modest 0.10% gain against the US Dollar, with GBP/USD trading around 1.3420 as investors wait for the US midterm election results. US factory figures and a softer JOLTS report lent support to the Greenback, helping it recover some of its earlier losses.

TMGM Analysis: Financial Market News, Economic Calendar & Market Insights

Can GBP/USD extend gains amid stronger US data and geopolitical uncertainty?

September job openings increased to 7.5 million from 7.19 million, according to the US Bureau of Labour Statistics' Job Openings and Labour Turnover Survey (JOLTS), with the rate rising to 4.5% from 4.3%. Hiring also picked up, with the hire rate reaching 3.4% from 3.3%, whereas total separations held steady at 3.3%.

Higher hiring alongside the increase in vacancies made the report encouraging. Separately, US Census Bureau figures showed that September Factory Orders grew 1.8% MoM, compared with 0.3% previously.

The risk of geopolitical escalation is also restraining GBP/USD gains. Al Araby reported that Washington and Tehran had approved a draft MOU, but Iran disputed the claims. According to IRIB, Iran rejected reports suggesting it was close to reaching an agreement with the US.

Attention is now shifting to the US midterm elections, with investors remaining uneasy about both the outcome and the White House's reaction. Polymarket data puts the Democrats' chances of taking control of the House of Representatives at 95% and of winning a US Senate majority at 78%.

At 101.81, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is unchanged. The index tracks the Greenback against a basket of six currencies.

Meanwhile, UK investors are preparing for this Thursday's monetary policy announcement from the Bank of England (BoE). Expectations point to its first interest rate increase since August 2023, while Prime Terminal data shows money markets pricing in three further hikes for 2027.

Implied BoE forward rates | Source: Prime Terminal

Which data releases are next?

With no releases scheduled on the UK calendar, traders will look to the US ADP Employment Change report and October's ISM Services PMI.

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Can the bullish bias hold?

Chart Analysis GBP/USD — Daily price chart for GBP/USD

A mildly bullish near-term outlook remains in place for GBP/USD, which trades at 1.3412 on the daily chart. Spot remains above both the latest 50/100/200-day simple moving average cluster reading of 1.3371 and the nearby rising support trend line around 1.3360, pointing to underlying buying interest on dips. At 58.5, the Relative Strength Index (14) remains in positive territory without reaching overbought levels, indicating that upward momentum is supportive but not yet stretched.

The first upside hurdle lies near the confluence of descending trend-line reactions, where the latest rejections occurred at 1.3508 and 1.3544. Beyond these levels, the more recent break of a support trend line creates a higher barrier at 1.3606. Initial downside support comes from the moving average band reclaimed around 1.3371, with additional backing from the rising structural trend line at 1.3360. Sustained trading above this support area would preserve the bullish bias.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

How Is Pound Sterling Performing Today?

The British Pound's strongest performance today was against the Swiss Franc. The table below sets out the percentage changes in the British Pound (GBP) against the major currencies listed.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.15%	0.00%	0.41%	0.04%	0.25%	0.07%	0.42%
EUR	-0.15%		-0.14%	0.25%	-0.11%	0.11%	-0.08%	0.27%
GBP	-0.00%	0.14%		0.36%	0.04%	0.25%	0.05%	0.42%
JPY	-0.41%	-0.25%	-0.36%		-0.35%	-0.15%	-0.33%	0.03%
CAD	-0.04%	0.11%	-0.04%	0.35%		0.21%	0.02%	0.38%
AUD	-0.25%	-0.11%	-0.25%	0.15%	-0.21%		-0.18%	0.17%
NZD	-0.07%	0.08%	-0.05%	0.33%	-0.02%	0.18%		0.36%
CHF	-0.42%	-0.27%	-0.42%	-0.03%	-0.38%	-0.17%	-0.36%

Percentage movements between the major currencies are displayed in the heat map. Select the base currency from the left-hand column and the quote currency from the top row. For instance, choosing the British Pound on the left and following its row across to the US Dollar gives the percentage change for GBP (base)/USD (quote) in the corresponding cell.