British Pound stays under pressure against USD as Wednesday’s UK Autumn Budget and FOMC approach

• Caution ahead of major event risks keeps bullish conviction muted as GBP/USD inches up on Tuesday.
• Wednesday brings the UK Autumn Budget, followed by the closely watched FOMC decision.
• Fresh direction for the pair will also come from US Q3 GDP data and the PCE Price Index.

Caution appears to be limiting further losses in GBP/USD, with traders seemingly reluctant to take aggressive positions before this week's major event risks. During Tuesday's Asian session, the pair stays under pressure below the mid-1.3300s, but remains above the previous day's swing low.

Bond market stability is expected to be the priority when UK Chancellor John Healey presents his first Autumn Budget on Wednesday, following Prime Minister Andy Burnham's ambitious spending plans. Investors will examine the proposed public expenditure and additional funding plans closely, assessing how they can be financed without provoking an adverse reaction in the gilt market. Those details will be an important driver of the British Pound (GBP), offering a meaningful catalyst for GBP/USD.

With expectations increasingly favouring unchanged interest rates, Wednesday's US Federal Reserve (Fed) decision will also draw investors' attention. In the absence of updated economic forecasts, markets will scrutinise the accompanying policy statement and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's remarks at the post-meeting press conference for further indications of the policy path ahead. The resulting outlook will help shape moves in the US Dollar (USD) and GBP/USD.

Thursday's Advance Q3 GDP growth report and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index add important US macroeconomic releases to this week's calendar. For now, the USD continues to draw support from geopolitical uncertainty and expectations that the US central bank will increase borrowing costs again in December. Expectations of tighter Bank of England (BoE) monetary policy, however, should help contain losses in GBP/USD.

What does the GBP/USD daily chart show?

Technical Analysis: Where Are the Key Barriers?

Resistance remains in place for GBP/USD at the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of 1.3389, alongside a closely grouped band of overhead Fibonacci levels. With spot trading just below the 38.2% retracement at 1.3344, rallies appear vulnerable. The wider recovery from the 1.3141 cycle low is still struggling to overcome medium-term resistance.

Beyond the 100-day SMA, the next notable obstacle lies around the 50.0% retracement at 1.3407. Further resistance stands at 1.3470 (61.8%) and 1.3559 (78.6%), followed by the 1.3673 swing high. Initial downside support lies at the 23.6% retracement of 1.3267. Below that, the 1.3141 cycle low forms a deeper structural floor, where a sharper retreat would be expected to attract stronger buying interest.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)