Can Gold overcome pressure below $4,100 as US Nonfarm Payrolls moves into focus?

Gold comes under pressure from a recovering US Dollar before the US jobs report.
Bullion could extend its decline if a stronger US jobs report boosts the Dollar.
Liquidity pressures from the AI-led equity rout leave Gold vulnerable to selling.

A recovering US Dollar (USD) is weighing on Gold (XAU/USD) on Friday as markets await the US Nonfarm Payrolls report at 13:30 GMT. The metal remains under pressure below $4,100, having touched a two-week high of $4,146 a day earlier. At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading near $4,065, a decline of 0.81% for the day, after hitting an intraday low of $4,035.

TMGM Analysis: Financial Market News, Economic Calendar & Market Insights

Forecasts put October job additions in the US economy at 65K, compared with 29K in September, with the Unemployment Rate expected to remain unchanged at 4.2%. A reading above expectations would signal resilience in the labour market and allow the Federal Reserve (Fed) greater scope to continue its fight against inflation.

Expectations of a December interest rate hike could consequently strengthen, supporting the US Dollar and adding to Gold’s downside pressure. Weaker figures, by contrast, could scale back those expectations, hurting the Greenback and aiding a recovery in bullion.

At around 102.00, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is 0.40% higher on the day. The index measures the Greenback’s performance against a basket of six major currencies.

At the same time, Gold faces the risk of liquidity-driven selling as the AI-led equity decline intensifies. Investors are trimming positions to generate cash, meet margin calls or offset losses in other assets.

Despite this pressure, a steep fall in Oil prices is helping bullion remain on course to end a three-week run of losses. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) has fallen around 12% so far this week. The Democratic sweep of Congress in the US midterm elections has raised expectations that lawmakers could rein in President Donald Trump’s military campaign against Iran.

Gold’s gains are nevertheless being constrained by a partial rebound in Oil prices, while a negotiated resolution to the US-Iran war continues to look distant despite diplomatic efforts. According to US President Donald Trump, the US may have to “destroy” the rest of Iran. He added that people will “know soon enough” whether he will act.

Since the war started in late February, bullion has been driven in large part by Crude prices and their implications for inflation and interest rates. Rising energy costs have increased the pressure on central banks to tighten monetary policy, leaving the non-yielding metal under strain.

How Is the US Dollar Performing Today?

The US Dollar recorded its strongest performance against the New Zealand Dollar today. The table below sets out the percentage changes in the US Dollar (USD) against the major currencies listed.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.39%	0.41%	0.28%	0.38%	0.85%	0.93%	0.11%
EUR	-0.39%		0.02%	-0.09%	-0.00%	0.46%	0.53%	-0.29%
GBP	-0.41%	-0.02%		-0.11%	-0.02%	0.45%	0.51%	-0.31%
JPY	-0.28%	0.09%	0.11%		0.11%	0.57%	0.64%	-0.18%
CAD	-0.38%	0.00%	0.02%	-0.11%		0.46%	0.53%	-0.28%
AUD	-0.85%	-0.46%	-0.45%	-0.57%	-0.46%		0.07%	-0.74%
NZD	-0.93%	-0.53%	-0.51%	-0.64%	-0.53%	-0.07%		-0.80%
CHF	-0.11%	0.29%	0.31%	0.18%	0.28%	0.74%	0.80%

Percentage movements between the major currencies are displayed in the heat map. Select the base currency in the left-hand column and the quote currency in the top row. For instance, choosing the US Dollar on the left and following that row across to the Japanese Yen gives the percentage change for USD (base)/JPY (quote) in the corresponding cell.