Indian Rupee’s winning streak against US Dollar ends on Thursday

• Gains in the Indian Rupee fade against the US Dollar after the currency touches a fresh high of almost seven weeks.
• Support for INR is likely to persist, aided by stronger foreign inflows, fresh RBI measures and active intervention.
• October flash PMI releases from India and the US are next on investors’ radar.

The Indian Rupee’s (INR) rally against the US Dollar (USD) is losing momentum as the currency struggles to secure an eighth consecutive trading day of gains. Following substantial buying interest around the seven-week low of 97.33, USD/INR recovers towards 94.78. Nevertheless, several favourable factors are expected to keep supporting the Indian currency.

What Keeps the INR Outlook Bullish?

The Indian currency’s advance is being driven by a combination of RBI action and foreign capital inflows. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has intervened actively on several occasions in the spot and Non-Deliverable Forwards (NDFs) markets, while announcing fresh steps to restrain demand for the US Dollar. Substantial foreign fund inflows for the Jio Platforms Initial Public Offering (IPO) are also contributing to the rally.

According to DBS Group Research, the Reserve Bank of India’s “multi-layered defence strategy to support the rupee this year,” brings together “outright intervention in spot/forwards, regulatory action, liquidity steps, administrative measures and moves to curb import-related dollar demand.” DBS adds that the authorities “are likely not done yet and remain ready to take further action, as required,” a stance reinforced by RBI Governor Malhotra in a recent Moneycontrol interview on 13 October. Highlighting the central bank’s commitment, he stressed that “The RBI is determined to do whatever is necessary to ensure orderly movement in the foreign exchange market.”

Separately, Groww reports that Reliance Industries-backed Jio Platforms launched its ₹30,213 crore IPO on 21 October 2026, with subscriptions remaining open until 23 October.

What Will October’s India-US Flash PMI Data Show?

Friday’s preliminary private-sector Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) releases for October, covering both India and the US, are being closely watched by investors.

 The US S&P Global PMI report is likely to point to another expansion in overall business activity, albeit at a moderate pace.

USD/INR Technical Analysis: Can Bearish Pressure Ease?

A bearish near-term bias persists on the daily chart, with USD/INR at 94.78, below its 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 95.43. As immediate dynamic resistance, this moving average suggests that rallies are likely to attract selling for as long as the pair stays beneath it.

At 35.62, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is close to oversold territory. This suggests that downward momentum is stretched, although a reversal has yet to be confirmed.

The 20-day EMA near 95.43 marks the first upside resistance. A daily close above it would be required to relieve the prevailing bearish pressure and create scope for a corrective recovery. On the downside, key support lies at 94.15, the low recorded on 25 June.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)