Ripple and Stellar Outlook: Momentum returns to XRP and XLM as derivatives activity gathers pace

• XRP’s recovery enters a second consecutive day, with support from the 100-day EMA keeping the token above $1.35.
• XLM restores $0.1800 as immediate support while the RSI’s rebound towards bullish territory lends further backing. 
• Derivatives activity strengthens as perpetual futures Open Interest climbs to 2.23 billion XRP and 1.22 billion XLM.

A broader advance in major digital assets is supporting renewed momentum in Ripple (XRP) and Stellar (XLM) on Wednesday. With XRP moving above $1.36 and XLM reaching $0.1854, both tokens are strengthening recently tested support levels. The gradual gains come against a backdrop of persistent inflation in the United States (US), with the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy decision due next week.

Traders appear to be keeping risk exposure in check before the Fed decision, even as XRP and XLM show signs of recovery. According to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, there is an 85% probability of interest rates remaining unchanged in the 3.75-4.00% range, against a 15% chance of a 25-basis-point increase.

Is retail activity gathering pace in XRP and XLM?

Activity is strengthening in the derivatives market: perpetual futures Open Interest (OI) reached 2.23 billion XRP on Wednesday, marginally above the previous day’s 2.18 billion XRP. With OI having stood at 2.12 billion XRP on Sunday, CoinGlass data indicates that retail traders are attempting to establish an uptrend. 

Sustained interest is not yet confirmed, however. The latest reading remains well below September’s peak of 2.46 billion XRP and August’s high of 2.77 billion XRP.

In Stellar futures, OI has increased to 1.22 billion XLM on Wednesday from 1.14 billion XLM the previous day. Binance accounts for roughly 217 million XLM and Bybit for 222 million XLM, while total OI has recovered from Monday’s 1.12 billion XLM. Leveraged positions are increasing alongside the ongoing price advance, pointing to improving speculative interest in the token.

Technical analysis: Can XRP advance as selling pressure fades?

Despite rebounding from recent lows, XRP retains a bearish near-term bias. At $1.36, it continues to trade beneath the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), both at $1.38.

Overhead resistance continues to come from the SuperTrend line at $1.47 and the broader descending resistance trendline projected towards $1.61. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains neutral at around 46, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is still slightly negative. Together, these indicators suggest fading upward momentum rather than a decisive bullish reversal.

The first resistance hurdle is the 200-day EMA, aligned with the 50-day EMA near $1.38. To relieve the prevailing downward pressure, XRP would need a daily close above this cluster. Beyond it, the SuperTrend barrier near $1.47 and the descending trendline area towards $1.62 present further hurdles. Initial support, meanwhile, is at the 100-day EMA at $1.34; a breach would likely pave the way for a steeper retreat towards earlier price lows.

Stellar technical analysis: Can XLM Bulls sustain the recovery as momentum improves?

Bulls are gaining traction above recently confirmed support near $0.1700, lifting XLM to $0.1854. Yet the two-day advance has not removed the token’s bearish bias: it remains beneath the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day EMAs, grouped between roughly $0.1900 and $0.1946, as well as SuperTrend resistance at $0.2060. With the MACD recovering only gradually from negative territory and the RSI near 44, momentum remains muted rather than signalling a powerful reversal.

A dense band of overhead resistance begins with the 100-day EMA at $0.1903, followed by the 50-day EMA at $0.1934 and the 200-day EMA at $0.1946. Further up are the SuperTrend level at $0.2060 and descending trendline resistance around $0.2263. For downside moves, attention centres first on the current price pivot of $0.1854. If XLM sustains a break below it, the former descending trendline breakout zone near $0.1685 would become the next significant support.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)