Ripple Price Forecast: Could XRP face further losses as bears target $1?

• Selling pressure persists in XRP, which trades below $1.09 on Monday following a decline of over 10% last week.
• A two-week inflow streak ended as US-listed XRP spot ETFs posted net outflows of $529,510 last week.
• XRP’s prospects of a recovery remain under pressure from deteriorating metrics and an adverse macroeconomic environment.

Bearish pressure continues to build on Ripple (XRP), with its price below $1.09 on Monday following last week’s fall of more than 10%. Institutional appetite is weakening, adding to the downside risks: XRP spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) posted net outflows of $529,510 last week, bringing a two-week inflow streak to an end. With deteriorating metrics and an adverse macroeconomic environment also constraining a recovery, bears are increasingly focusing on the psychological $1 level.

Is institutional appetite for XRP fading?

A reversal in ETF flows pointed to softer institutional demand for XRP last week. According to SoSoValue data, XRP spot ETFs registered net outflows of $529,510, breaking a two-week sequence of net inflows. Should withdrawals persist and gather pace through this week, XRP could face further pressure and a deeper price correction.

Are deteriorating metrics holding XRP back?

At 0.91 on Monday, CoinGlass’ XRP long-to-short ratio was close to its lowest reading in over a month. Readings below one signal bearish sentiment, reflecting traders’ bets on falling asset prices.

A bearish picture for Ripple also emerges from CryptoQuant’s summary data. Large whale orders and seller dominance are evident in both XRP’s spot and futures markets. Signs of heating in the spot market further underline the cautious, bearish tilt in sentiment among Ripple traders.

Could macroeconomic conditions restrain XRP’s recovery?

Risk assets came under pressure from last week’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release. With US payrolls exceeding expectations, the data strengthened expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) could maintain higher interest rates for longer. Holding non-yielding assets such as XRP carries a greater opportunity cost when rates are higher, while investor appetite for riskier investments diminishes. 

The CME FedWatch tool puts the probability of a December rate increase currently priced in by traders at about 78.7%, compared with 72.8% before the US jobs report. Such a macroeconomic environment could keep XRP’s recovery prospects under pressure.

XRP technical outlook: Will bears test the psychological $1 level?

The near-term bias for XRP remains bearish, with the price at $1.095 at the time of writing on Monday. It continues to trade well beneath the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which are grouped between $1.302 and $1.360.

On the daily chart, a Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 26 places XRP in oversold territory, suggesting that the downside move is stretched. Nevertheless, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram stays below zero, pointing to continued selling pressure as the price consolidates around recent lows.

Any move higher faces initial resistance at $1.160. Stronger supply lies at $1.300 and the 50-day EMA of $1.302, ahead of the 100-day EMA at $1.307 and the 200-day EMA at $1.360. Together, these levels limit attempts at a sustained recovery.

For a move lower, the closest significant support lies at the psychological $1.000 level, where buyers would be expected to mount a defence.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Learn more.)