Ripple Price Forecast: Negative Coinbase Premium Index weighs as XRP remains rangebound

• Subdued investor interest leaves XRP moving sideways near $1.25.
• Softer demand is indicated by XRP's Coinbase Premium Index, which has slipped into negative territory at about -0.16%.
• Structural constraints on the upside leave XRP with little scope for a technical recovery.

An indecisive market keeps Ripple (XRP) near $1.25 on Monday, with buyers and sellers vying to establish the next trend once consolidation ends. Following the $6.3 billion Binance security breach, the remittance token suffered a steep correction along with other cryptocurrencies last week. Buyers are likely to return around the $1.20 zone, which serves as psychological support. Even so, structural barriers across short- and medium-term timeframes call for measured investor expectations.

Does a negative Coinbase Premium Index point to weaker XRP demand?

Weakening demand for XRP is indicated by its Coinbase Premium Index, which has moved into negative territory at around 0.16%, according to on-chain data from CryptoQuant. The reading means that the token's average price on Coinbase is now lower than its corresponding price on Binance.

Past periods of persistently negative readings have sometimes coincided with softer buying demand on Coinbase. A move back into positive territory, by contrast, may point to a relative recovery in demand.

A falling index alone, however, does not establish that downward pressure will persist. Assessing its movements requires looking at trading volumes, exchange flows and XRP's price action together.

The deterioration in XRP demand accompanies a marked weakening in market sentiment. On Monday, the Fear & Greed Index stood at 37 in Fear territory, only marginally above the previous day's 34. That reading compares unfavourably with last week's neutral level of 50 and the previous month's Greed reading of 67.

Technical analysis: Could XRP extend its losses?

A bearish near-term bias remains in place on the daily chart as XRP/USDT trades around $1.25, continuing its decline below every major Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Above the price sit the 100-day EMA at $1.33, the 50-day EMA at $1.34 and the 200-day EMA at $1.37. Together with the SuperTrend line near $1.40, these levels create a dense overhead supply zone.

Sellers appear to retain control as momentum stays weak, even though conditions are not outright oversold. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 36, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains negative beneath the zero line.

For a meaningful recovery to take shape, XRP/USDT must first regain the broken descending trendline near $1.30, its immediate resistance. The next hurdles are the 100-day EMA at $1.33 and the 50-day EMA at $1.34. Further up, the 200-day EMA at $1.37, alongside the SuperTrend barrier at $1.40, places a broader ceiling on gains.

The current daily-chart dataset offers no clearly defined nearby support. A sustained move back above trendline resistance at $1.30 would therefore provide the first indication of easing selling pressure. Until that happens, the cluster of moving averages and SuperTrend resistance above the price is likely to restrict rallies.

(An AI tool assisted in preparing this story's technical analysis. Learn more.)