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US inflation: What range does Societe Generale’s core PCE guidance suggest?
An upside surprise in October US core CPI, which rose 0.3% month-on-month, is the focus of Societe Generale’s Jan Groen’s inflation analysis. His estimates put PCE housing inflation at 0.28% and core-goods inflation at around 0.25%. Core PCE inflation is projected to range between 0.27% and 0.33%, depending on super-core PCE dynamics. The October PPI release is expected to help refine these estimates.
Will core PCE remain relatively firm?
"October core CPI surprised to the upside at 0.3% m/m."
"Direct estimates suggest PCE housing inflation barely eased to 0.28% m/m, while PCE core-goods inflation likely was firm at around 0.25% m/m."
"Depending on whether monthly super-core PCE inflation reverts toward its recent six-month average (0.28% m/m) or remains near the August-September pace (0.37% m/m), core PCE inflation would likely fall in a 0.27%-0.33% m/m range, with a central estimate around 0.30% m/m."
"The October PPI release will provide more clarity with regards to super-core PCE."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
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