Silver Price Forecast: Is $50.00 in sight for XAG/USD bears as RSI moves into oversold territory?

• Selling pressure pushes Silver to new yearly lows as expectations of a hawkish Fed prevail.
• The bearish outlook persists, with XAG/USD trading below its daily SMAs.
• Despite an oversold RSI reading, MACD and ADX indicate that sellers retain the upper hand.

Selling pressure drives Silver (XAG/USD) to new year-to-date lows on Thursday, with the metal down around 3% as expectations of a hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) deter buyers. Trading around $52.32 at the time of writing, XAG/USD is at its weakest since November 2025.

Even a weaker US Dollar (USD) has failed to halt the slide, indicating that interest rate expectations continue to dictate price movements. As borrowing costs rise, so does the opportunity cost of holding Silver, which offers no yield.

Expectations of a December rate hike remain firmly supported by the latest US economic figures published on Thursday. September’s core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, a measure closely monitored by the Fed, increased 0.3% MoM. On an annual basis, core inflation edged up from 3.0% to 3.1%, still exceeding the Fed’s 2% target.

Growth figures also surpassed forecasts: the preliminary third-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimate put US economic expansion at an annualised 3.4%, against expectations of 3.2% and the previous quarter’s 2.2%. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders assign around an 80% probability to a December rate hike.

These releases follow the Fed’s decision on Wednesday, at the close of its October meeting, to leave interest rates at 3.75%-4.00%. The key message, however, was that inflation remained high and the central bank was still committed to maintaining price stability.

Technical Analysis: Can Silver Find Support?

With XAG/USD holding well below its key daily moving averages, the technical picture continues to favour sellers. An oversold reading near 28 on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) could leave room for a short-term rebound. Nevertheless, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in negative territory, and an Average Directional Index (ADX) reading near 37 points to a strong downtrend.

Any recovery would first face horizontal resistance near $55.00, then the previous consolidation area around $60.00. Beyond that, the 100-day SMA at $61.73 and the 50-day SMA at $62.11 form a broader resistance band. Higher still, the 200-day SMA at $70.63 stands as a significant hurdle to a sustained rebound.

Should selling extend, attention would turn to the psychological $50.00 mark as a key support level. A clear break beneath it could pave the way for further losses.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)