USD/JPY Price Forecast: Pair holds near 20-day EMA

Continued US Dollar weakness pulls USD/JPY lower towards 157.90.
The continuation of Republican policies is at risk following the US Democrats’ midterm election victory.
A Fed interest rate hike at the December policy meeting is confidently anticipated by investors.

Selling pressure weighs on USD/JPY on Thursday, with the pair slipping 0.3% to around 157.90 during European trading as the Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens against the US Dollar (USD). Behind the Dollar’s underperformance are concerns that United States (US) Republicans could struggle to maintain their policies following their midterm election setback against the Democrats.

TMGM Analysis: Financial Market News, Economic Calendar & Market Insights

How Is the US Dollar Performing Today?

The US Dollar recorded its weakest performance against the New Zealand Dollar today. The table below sets out the percentage changes in the US Dollar (USD) against the major currencies listed.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.29%	-0.16%	-0.32%	-0.12%	-0.17%	-0.41%	-0.33%
EUR	0.29%		0.13%	-0.05%	0.16%	0.12%	-0.14%	-0.06%
GBP	0.16%	-0.13%		-0.17%	0.03%	-0.01%	-0.25%	-0.19%
JPY	0.32%	0.05%	0.17%		0.21%	0.17%	-0.10%	-0.01%
CAD	0.12%	-0.16%	-0.03%	-0.21%		-0.04%	-0.30%	-0.22%
AUD	0.17%	-0.12%	0.01%	-0.17%	0.04%		-0.23%	-0.17%
NZD	0.41%	0.14%	0.25%	0.10%	0.30%	0.23%		0.10%
CHF	0.33%	0.06%	0.19%	0.01%	0.22%	0.17%	-0.10%

Percentage movements between the major currencies are displayed in the heat map. Select the base currency in the left-hand column and the quote currency in the top row. For instance, choosing the US Dollar on the left and following that row across to the Japanese Yen gives the percentage change for USD (base)/JPY (quote) in the corresponding cell.

At the time of writing, a 0.25% decline has taken the US Dollar Index (DXY) to around 101.24, leaving it near the monthly low of 101.10 recorded the day before. The index tracks the Greenback against six major currencies.

A Democratic sweep would likely “lead to gridlock on the debt ceiling, a prolonged government shutdown next year”, according to analysts at ING. In a further warning, the bank said that “fears of tougher regulation could weigh on Artificial Intelligence (AI) stocks (we’ve recently seen how that can hit the greenback)”.

Attention on the economic calendar is turning to Friday’s release of US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for October. Investors expect the report to significantly influence expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: Can the 20-Day EMA Provide Support?

A broadly neutral near-term bias persists as USD/JPY holds close to its 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) of 157.90. On the daily chart, the pair is trading at 157.93.

Neither buyers nor sellers have a clear upper hand for now: the Relative Strength Index (RSI), at 50.66, remains close to its midpoint. This suggests limited directional conviction following the recent swings.

The 20-day EMA around 157.90 offers the first support on the downside. A breach would leave the pair vulnerable to a move towards recent lows should selling intensify. For the upside, the supplied dataset identifies no nearby technical resistance. Traders may therefore watch psychological round-number levels and earlier swing highs above the current price for potential supply that could hinder advances.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Learn more.)

Which Economic Indicator Is in Focus?

What Do Nonfarm Payrolls Measure?

Published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the Nonfarm Payrolls report measures new jobs created across US non-agricultural businesses in the preceding month. Payroll changes from one month to the next can fluctuate sharply, and substantial revisions to the figures can also spark volatility in the Forex market. A strong reading is generally viewed as positive for the US Dollar (USD), whereas a weak reading is regarded as negative. However, revisions to earlier months and the Unemployment Rate carry as much relevance as the headline number. The market response consequently reflects its assessment of the BLS report’s full set of data.

Find out more.

Next scheduled release: Fri 06 Nov 2026 13:30

Release frequency: Every month

Consensus estimate: 65K

Prior reading: 29K

Data source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

Why does the jobs report matter to traders?

Substantial market volatility often follows surprises in Nonfarm Payrolls, with readings above consensus generally supporting the USD. This tendency to surprise persists even though several leading indicators help shape estimates. For forex traders, America’s monthly jobs report is regarded as the most important economic indicator. Published on the first Friday after the month under review, it tracks changes in the number of jobs, which are closely linked to the economy’s overall performance and watched by policymakers. With full employment among its mandates, the Federal Reserve takes labour market developments into account when setting policy, thereby influencing currencies.