Fed pause reveals inflation divide as Australian Dollar holds its ground

  • AUD/USD stays stable as the Fed delivers its widely anticipated rate decision.
  • Two officials favour a rate hike as the Fed leaves rates unchanged at 3.75%-4%.
  • Further tightening remains a possibility amid robust US growth and high inflation.

The Australian Dollar is holding its ground against the US Dollar following the Federal Reserve's decision to leave rates unchanged, even as US inflation remains well above the central bank's 2% target. Two members opposed the decision, preferring a quarter-percentage-point rate increase. AUD/USD is trading at 0.7056.

TMGM Analysis: Financial Market News, Economic Calendar & Market Insights

Why is AUD/USD holding firm as the Fed pauses despite two votes for further tightening?

Two officials voted for a 25-basis-point rate increase on Wednesday as the Fed kept rates unchanged at 3.75%–4%. The dissenters were Fed Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack.

Economic activity continues to expand, the Fed acknowledged. It said domestic spending “has been resilient, that productivity growth is strong and that capital investment is robust,” while also highlighting strong productivity growth. Turning to its employment mandate, the Fed observed that “Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little.”

Although inflation remains elevated, the central bank opted against raising rates, preferring to collect further information and evaluate the appropriate policy stance.

AUD/USD – Daily Price Chart

Daily chart of AUD/USD

Australian Dollar: Frequently Asked Questions

Market sentiment helps shape the Australian Dollar's (AUD) performance: a willingness to buy riskier assets (risk-on) supports the currency, while a preference for safe havens (risk-off) also influences its value. Among the most important drivers is the interest rate set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Australia's rich resource base also makes the price of iron ore, its largest export, a key influence. Other factors include economic conditions in China, Australia's biggest trading partner, along with Australian inflation, economic growth and the trade balance.

By setting the interest rate at which Australian banks can lend to one another, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) affects rates across the wider economy and, in turn, the Australian Dollar (AUD). Its primary objective is to keep inflation stable at 2-3%, raising or lowering interest rates to achieve this. Rates that are relatively high compared with those of other major central banks support the AUD; relatively low rates have the reverse effect. Quantitative easing and quantitative tightening offer the RBA additional ways to influence credit conditions. Easing is negative for the AUD, whereas tightening is positive.

As Australia's biggest trading partner, China has a substantial influence on the Australian Dollar's (AUD) value through its economic performance. A strong Chinese economy buys more Australian raw materials, goods and services, increasing demand for the AUD and lifting its value. Growth that falls short of expectations has the reverse effect. Consequently, upside or downside surprises in Chinese growth figures often directly affect the Australian Dollar and its currency pairs.

With annual exports worth $118 billion according to 2021 data, iron ore is Australia's largest export, and China is its main destination. This makes its price an important potential driver of the Australian Dollar. Rising iron ore prices generally lift the AUD by increasing overall demand for the currency, while falling prices have the reverse effect. Higher prices also tend to improve the likelihood of an Australian trade surplus, providing further support for the AUD.

Another influence on the Australian Dollar is the trade balance: the difference between a country's export earnings and its spending on imports. Strong overseas demand for Australian exports can lift the currency's value through the excess demand generated by foreign buyers relative to Australia's expenditure on imports. A positive net trade balance therefore supports the AUD, whereas a negative balance has the reverse effect.