Bitcoin and Gold Outlook: What next as BTC tumbles to six-week low and XAU sinks below $3,950 to one-year low?

• Selling pressure takes Bitcoin towards six-week lows near $77,000, extending its decline to a second consecutive day following the Binance security breach.
• Under pressure from sellers and a deteriorating technical structure, Gold retreats below $3,950.
• Following a reported $6.3 billion hack, Binance works with blockchain partners to freeze $3 billion.

Bearish sentiment continues to grip the broader cryptocurrency market on Friday, pushing Bitcoin (BTC) towards a six-week low near $77,000 after Binance disclosed a $6.3 billion hack. With the security breach still undermining confidence, Bitcoin is recording a second successive day of losses. Crypto liquidations over 24 hours total $1.5 billion, reflecting the sustained selling pressure.

The decline in Gold (XAU/USD) has also deepened, taking prices below $3,940 and towards a one-year low. Risk aversion remains widespread as the Federal Reserve (Fed) kept interest rates within the 3.75-4.00% range.

Sticky inflation drew concern from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh on Wednesday. He said there had been “essentially no progress” towards the central bank’s 2% target, while reiterating the Fed’s commitment to restoring price stability.

In an emailed commentary, Vladimir Tikhomirov, founder of Theorem and co-founder of Algebra, said: “I view the Fed’s decision to keep rates unchanged as something the market had largely expected. And, although some may interpret this as a sign that the tightening cycle is over, I wouldn’t say the pause marks its end. Inflation is still high,” adding, “So the possibility of another rate increase in December is something the market has to account for.”

Can Binance recover assets after a security breach affecting $6 billion?

Deposits and withdrawals were temporarily suspended at Binance after a security breach reportedly affected roughly $6.3 billion. The largest cryptocurrency exchange took the step to provide time for an internal investigation and review.

According to Binance, a DevOps engineer’s laptop may have been compromised in the incident. This may have enabled the attacker to enter a container service through which unauthorised withdrawal transactions were submitted.

In a statement on X, Binance said: “We have found no evidence of any wallet private key leak,”

Approximately $3 billion has been frozen on-chain through Binance’s work with blockchain partners, including Tether, Circle and Ripple, according to updates from the exchange.

Reiterating that user assets remain safe, Binance said its Secure Asset Fund for Users (SAFU) programme, together with the company’s assets, would cover all losses.

Alongside the halt to deposits and withdrawals, Binance revoked authorisation for the affected address. It also collaborated with law enforcement and blockchain partners to track and recover the funds.

As the industry matures, cryptocurrency scams and fraud continue to pose a major challenge. The Chainalysis 2026 Crypto Crime Report points to a 162% annual increase. On-chain losses to cryptocurrency scams reached $14 billion, while AI-enabled schemes jumped 1,400% annually.

In written commentary, The Hashgraph Group CEO, Stefan Deiss, said: “The sheer scale of this hack makes it look like a one-off, but it isn't. AI is helping attackers find weaknesses faster than companies can fix them, and attacks like this are becoming more common, not less,”

Technical analysis: Could Bitcoin face further losses?

At $77,310, Bitcoin retains a bearish near-term outlook, trading beneath its 100-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), positioned at $77,811 and $80,581, respectively. Nevertheless, the pair holds above the 200-day EMA of $76,476, indicating that the broader uptrend remains intact through the pullback. Momentum indicators offer a weaker picture: the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains below zero, reinforcing the downside bias, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) falls towards oversold territory at 34.

Any recovery would first encounter resistance around $77,811 at the 100-day EMA, followed by the more substantial 50-day EMA barrier near $80,581, where sellers could regain control. On the downside, the SuperTrend line at $84,056, previously a bullish trigger zone, marks deeper demand. The nearer trend support stands at the 200-day EMA of $76,476; a daily close beneath it would likely prolong the downward correction.

Technical analysis: Can Gold sellers maintain control?

Trading at $3,941, Gold continues to show a bearish bias below its short-, medium- and long-term exponential moving averages (EMAs). Overhead resistance comes from the 50-day EMA at $4,186, the 100-day EMA at $4,258 and the 200-day EMA at $4,273.80.

Further evidence of limited room for rallies comes from the Parabolic SAR at $4,083. Meanwhile, a weakening MACD reading in negative territory points to persistent downward pressure. At 33, the RSI sits just above the oversold threshold, signalling an extended sell-off, although the near-term trend remains in the bears’ hands.

A recovery would initially meet resistance near $4,032, the break level of the downward resistance trendline, before reaching the Parabolic SAR barrier at $4,083. Further up, the 50-day EMA at $4,186, 100-day EMA at $4,258 and 200-day EMA at $4,274 create a concentrated supply zone likely to restrain any corrective rebound.

With no clearly defined structural support levels in the dataset, the recent low near the current trading region serves as the immediate downside reference. A sustained move below $3,941 would likely pave the way for additional losses, given that momentum indicators still favour the bears.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Learn more.)